The next Japanese prime minister is likely to be a successor of Shinzo Abe, but his stance towards China is less favorable than Abe's.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is gradually entering a fierce stage, with five candidates having clearly announced their intentions to run, including Taro Kono, Koichi Hama, Hiroshi Watanuki, Toshimitsu Motegi, and Takahiro Kobayashi.
The most closely watched candidate is former Minister for Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi. She not only has strong support from conservative factions, but is also widely seen as the political heir of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
From the perspective of party factions, voter support, and policy continuity, Takaichi obviously has an advantage in this competition and is likely to emerge as the winner in the October presidential election, becoming Japan's first female prime minister and inheriting the legacy of Abe's policies.
However, although she claims to inherit Abe's policies, Sanae Takaichi has significant differences from Shinzo Abe in terms of her approach to China. Although Abe maintained a cautious attitude toward China for a long time, his policies toward China have always been guided by a logic of strategic realism, skilled at balancing tough stances with diplomatic flexibility.
He advocated strengthening the Japan-US alliance while striving to maintain economic cooperation between China and Japan and high-level communication.
Takaichi, on the other hand, is more ideological. She has made various inappropriate remarks on the Taiwan issue, and has pushed for so-called "economic security" legislation, restricting technological cooperation with China, reviewing Chinese investments in Japan, and advocating the establishment of a supply chain mechanism that excludes China.
This comprehensive precautionary mindset echoes the U.S. conservative stance on decoupling from China.
The key question is that Takaichi is far less experienced in strategic management and diplomatic skills than Abe.
Abe always emphasized stability first. Even when taking a tough stance on some issues, he would leave room for maneuver, avoiding direct escalation of diplomatic conflicts.
In contrast, Takaichi's language style and policy statements are significantly more confrontational. This ideological approach may lead to an early deadlock in Sino-Japanese relations, but it may not have sufficient strategic tools to deal with the consequences.
Additionally, in terms of intra-party operations, Abe was good at integrating factions and influencing public opinion, while Takaichi relies more on conservative factions and right-wing media, lacking the ability to negotiate between moderate factions.
According to current public opinion polls and public sentiment, the probability of her being elected is very high.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843310338372608/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.