Reference News Network, September 3 report: On September 1, the Australia East Asia Forum website published an article titled "The 'House of Cards' of Japanese Politics", authored by the editorial board of the East Asia Forum. The article is excerpted as follows:

After the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the July House of Councillors election, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is facing increasing pressure to resign. This is another major setback for him.

However, despite being in a minority position in both houses, Ishiba has refused to resign, breaking the precedent he once advocated. His ability to maintain power indicates the current political deadlock in Japan. This is a fragile balance, where no side is strong enough to govern effectively, and all sides are too weak to change the status quo, resulting in blocked policy reforms.

At one end of this fragile balance, Ishiba faces dual pressures, with his leadership under threat. Conservative nationalist factions within the LDP are trying to replace him with members of their own faction. They have continuously criticized Ishiba on core conservative issues.

Meanwhile, as Takao Yasuo pointed out in our top article this week, the far-right populist party Satsujin Party is moving from the margins to the mainstream, largely at the expense of the LDP losing seats. The Satsujin Party uses exclusionary "Japan First" rhetoric, exploiting the economic frustrations of the "job ice age" generation in Japan. As Professor Higuchi Naoto from Waseda University and scholar Goo Yoo-jin from the International Christian University pointed out, although this situation does not necessarily mean public support for strict anti-immigration policies, both pressures exploit people's anxieties about the direction of Japan's national development, promoting nationalism, leaving little room for Ishiba's consensus-building, consultative governance style.

On the other end of the balance, there are some counterbalancing forces that prevent Ishiba's fragile rule from collapsing. The conservative nationalists of the LDP have been politically weakened by scandals involving groups like the Unification Church, which has hindered their efforts to overthrow Ishiba. At the same time, main opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party are divided due to ideological differences and strategic disagreements, preventing them from taking advantage of the LDP's weaknesses and forming an effective alternative government.

This fragile balance comes with governance costs, limiting Japan's ability to address urgent issues. Two key areas, China policy and immigration, illustrate the consequences of political paralysis.

Domestic political struggles prevent Ishiba from deepening engagement with China and could potentially undermine Japan's pragmatic China policy that seeks a balance between dialogue and deterrence. As Professor Kaisho Makoto from Tokyo University summarized in our other top article this week, the risk is that political pressure may force future governments to adopt a harder stance, undermining the currently constructive and relatively stable bilateral relationship.

Political factors that put pressure on Japan's China policy also hinder the government from taking decisive action on immigration. In this area, nationalist rhetoric directly conflicts with economic needs.

Although the foreign resident population in Japan accounts for only 3% of the total population, the issue of immigration became a powerful political weapon in the July House of Councillors election. The Satsujin Party used immigration as its "most powerful appeal," calling for the cancellation of immigrant benefits, restricting their employment, and enforcing stricter cultural conformity. This exclusionary rhetoric resonates because it provides a "clear but misleading explanation" for the economic insecurity of people.

This anti-immigrant rhetoric contradicts Japan's demographic crisis. In 2024, Japan's population dropped to 120 million. Nearly one-third of the population is over 65 years old. This leads to an unsustainable dependency ratio, making it crucial to use foreign workers to fill critical labor shortages.

This contradiction is not only reflected in labor demand but also in fiscal realities. With Japan's public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 250%, the pressure on public services and pensions from an aging society continues to grow, and Japan needs a stable tax base, which only permanent residents can provide.

The reluctance of the ruling party to seriously address immigration policy means that Japan can only take temporary measures when dealing with this shift, rather than implementing strategic planning. (Translated by Tu Qi)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7545767262377083438/

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