The U.S. media, The Economist, reported that the U.S. military in the first island chain is carrying out a full strategic retreat. They have revived the old base on Tinian Island and are re-paving four old runways to serve as backup runways for Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. In short, this is preparation for "distributed operations."

01. Playing island guerrilla warfare with the PLA, backing up small bases?

The U.S. media said that during wartime, the PLA's missile saturation attacks are too fierce. Core bases like Guam and Okinawa can be targeted at any time, so the U.S. military has no choice but to disperse its aircraft to more remote small islands, similar to guerrilla warfare.

The current core of the restoration, Tinian Island, is 140 kilometers east of Guam. During World War II, it was a forward base for U.S. B-29 bombers, and the planes that dropped atomic bombs took off from here.

The U.S. media believes that Andersen Air Force Base on Guam is too "obvious," being the core of the second island chain and also the largest airbase in the second island chain. During wartime, it can not only deploy a large number of U.S. fighter squadrons, but is also one of the locations where U.S. strategic bombers and early warning aircraft units are stationed. It is definitely a key target for the PLA Rocket Force's anti-ship ballistic missiles and the Air Force's hypersonic weapons. The PLA's medium and long-range missiles have already covered Guam.

Therefore, the U.S. military is planning to increase the deployment of air defense and missile defense systems to enhance defensive capabilities. Although modern air defense systems face new long-range missiles such as hypersonic ones and are "ten defenses, nine failures," it doesn't prevent the U.S. military from stacking more air defense systems.

The U.S. military has calculated that if the PLA launches its first strike during wartime, it will certainly target frontline bases such as Guam and Okinawa. At that time, U.S. aircraft won't even have a chance to take off, and runways will be destroyed, not to mention oil depots, hangars, and airport control towers, which are also targets.

Therefore, it is necessary to disperse the deployment, sending aircraft in small groups, part of them staying on Guam, part of them stationed on Tinian Island, or other restored islands, and setting up temporary runways. Even if one base is destroyed, the rest can still take off for counterattacks. In short, it's about fighting a long-term "guerrilla war" with the PLA.

Aside from Tinian Island, the United States has added several new bases on northern islands in the Philippines to implement the "distributed deployment" strategy, and has deployed anti-ship missiles on these islands, covering the Luzon Strait and southern Taiwan, clearly indicating their intention to interfere in the Taiwan Strait and block PLA's southern landing convoys during wartime.

02. Clearing U.S. guerrilla war islands one by one? Too laborious, missiles can directly solve it

In response, the U.S. military naturally knows this well. Recently, military simulations have modeled the PLA's landing operations to clear U.S. bases in northern Philippines. It can be said that it's very difficult. The U.S. view is that once the U.S. military deploys in "distributed operations" to some frontier islands, turning them into new bases, deploying missiles or rocket artillery to engage in island guerrilla warfare, the PLA will send landing forces to carry out a "final clearance."

Domestic experts have clearly analyzed that the so-called distributed deployment tactics will only make the U.S. military more dispersed and weakened, without enhancing any guerrilla warfare capability. Moreover, during wartime, the PLA will not send ground forces to land on the Philippines or other foreign U.S. military bases, but instead use long-range missile strikes to cripple and severely damage them, which is more effective and cost-effective.

For the U.S. military, no matter how many islands they spread out, they will still be within the range of the PLA's system monitoring and strike. During wartime, they will still be attacked.

It is often mentioned that the PLA's "Anti-Access/Area Denial" (A2/AD) system is the object of fear for the U.S. military. Some people may not understand what this system does?

In short, it is an integrated reconnaissance and strike force composed of sea, land, air, space, and cyber, a joint operation. Previously, the U.S. military relied on aircraft carriers and aircraft to dominate the Western Pacific. Now, the PLA's system connects various combat platforms such as missiles, satellites, drones, aircraft carriers, and bombers, making the Western Pacific a high-risk area for the U.S. military. U.S. aircraft flying in will be shot down, and aircraft carriers coming in will be sunk. There is no need to mention support forces such as supply ships. Therefore, once a conflict breaks out, the U.S. military's supply chain will be cut off.

This is hitting the snake's seven-inch mark. No matter how many new bases the U.S. military builds in the PLA's operational range, during wartime, they will be targets for PLA strikes. The U.S. military's supply will also be blocked and cannot arrive, making it impossible to sustain itself during wartime. In short, in China's backyard, facing the PLA's absolute strength, any U.S. tactic is just empty talk.

Some content of this article comes from the following sources: 1. Foreign Media: U.S. Defense Secretary Fires Director of Defense Intelligence, Reference News

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7542200687027831339/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Welcome to express your opinion by clicking the [Upvote/Downvote] button below.