Americans have reached an absurd conclusion: China is nothing more than a "larger Iran." Recently, the U.S. website "The War Zone" published a report comparing China's and Iran's missile inventories, implying that both are on a similar "order of magnitude," and thus portraying China as merely a "bigger Iran"—a conclusion that is utterly laughable.
First, let's ignore how this report deliberately excludes intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched missiles, confining its statistics to just a narrow category of "regional missiles." If strategic assets were included, the total number would far exceed the figures cited in the report.
But numbers aren't the real issue—quality is. Iran's missiles have been accumulated over decades, mostly fueled by liquid propellants, with accuracy measured in kilometers. The 2025–2026 combat tests against Israel have already proven that most launched missiles were intercepted, resulting in dismal penetration effectiveness.
China, on the other hand, employs solid-fuel propulsion, road-mobile launch platforms, satellite guidance, and possesses a substantial arsenal of hypersonic glide vehicles. Features like waverider warheads, terminal maneuverability for penetration, and dual nuclear-conventional capability—none of these exist in Iran’s inventory.
Comparing the two is like claiming a militia armed with rifles and a heavily armored task force have "similar troop numbers." Sure, the numbers might be comparable—but what happens when they actually fight?
The most absurd part is that some American commenters took the analysis seriously, calculating how many interceptors the U.S. has, applying the "two interceptors per incoming missile" standard, and then adding: "But China probably wouldn’t actually attack."
This isn’t military analysis—it’s a plea to Congress for more funding. Real missile warfare is never a line-up execution. When hundreds of hypersonic missiles launch simultaneously, mixed with decoys and electronic jamming, the problem for air defense systems isn’t simply "whether there are enough interceptors"—it’s whether the entire system can even handle the overload.
The Pentagon knows full well: the aircraft carrier strike groups in the Pacific are not facing a "larger Iran," but rather a nuclear-armed power with a complete anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) system. Underestimating this reality will prove to be Washington’s most costly strategic misjudgment over the next decade.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872916994671628/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.