【By Observer News, Wang Yi】With the ongoing U.S. military action against Iran, speculation about the U.S. running out of ammunition has been widespread.
Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on March 10 that due to the high dependence of U.S. advanced weapons on Chinese rare earth supply, China's leading position in this field may provide it with new negotiation leverage in its confrontation with the U.S., which could indirectly affect the duration of the U.S. military action against Iran.
The report cited multiple sources who revealed that the current U.S. stockpile of rare earths is only enough to last about two months, a problem that may dominate the agenda during Trump's visit to China. On the other hand, China seems less urgent in pushing for an agreement than Washington.
Associate Professor Zhang Yue from the Australia-China Relations Institute at Australia's University of Technology Sydney said that the U.S. reliance on Chinese rare earths will give China a "significant indirect lever," thereby affecting the duration and cost of potential conflicts. Rare earth elements, especially heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, are widely used in manufacturing high-performance magnets, radar systems, missile guidance components, and key propulsion systems of advanced weapons.
She pointed out that this dependency could change the strategic balance between the U.S. and China, exposing Washington to a "asymmetric vulnerability." China's dominant position in the rare earth supply chain not only can become a practical bargaining chip in negotiations but also may enhance its influence over the U.S. in broader geopolitical competition.
A report released by the U.S. Geological Survey this month showed that about 71% of the rare earth elements imported by the U.S. from 2021 to 2024 came from China. Among them, China was the sole supplier of critical heavy rare earth elements like terbium during the same period, and there are currently no immediate alternative channels.
Zhang Yue analyzed that if China further tightens its export controls on rare earths, the U.S. might face "serious shortages" in key weapon components, with its strategic reserves able to meet "short-term operational needs" at most. She said that this dependence forces the U.S. to weigh three options: cutting down on weapon production, seeking limited alternative supplies at higher costs, or consuming limited strategic reserves.
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran. President Trump initially expected the military operation to last four to five weeks. However, he stated on March 9 that the action against Iran would "soon" end, but "not this week." Later that night, Trump again said that if Iran took any actions to block oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would retaliate with a strike "20 times more intense than ever before."
Last week, U.S. media reported that top U.S. military officials had warned Trump that if the U.S. launched a large-scale and prolonged attack on Iran, the issue of ammunition reserves would be one of the risks faced. The Washington Post cited anonymous U.S. officials who said that within the first two days of the attack on Iran, the Pentagon had already consumed $5.6 billion worth of ammunition, raising concerns about the speed of consumption of U.S. advanced weapon stocks.
Amanda van Dyke, founder of the industry think tank "Critical Minerals Hub," said that the current U.S. missile stockpile is sufficient to support a war against Iran for 3 to 6 months, but replenishing the stockpile after the conflict will face considerable challenges.
"Although it is achievable, it will be very difficult and complex. Without Chinese minerals, it may take even longer," Van Dyke said.
Data shows that China controls 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refined production, and is also the world's largest supplier of heavy rare earth permanent magnets, accounting for 94% of global output.
Faced with China's advantages in critical mineral fields, the U.S. has recently taken various actions, trying to reduce its dependence on China through substantial investments, establishing strategic reserves, and reshaping the supply chain. Last month, the Trump administration launched a key mineral strategic reserve project called "Project Vault," planning to invest $12 billion to establish a mineral strategic reserve.
On February 2, Trump announced the establishment of a strategic reserve for key minerals. IC Photo
However, Van Dyke believes that this plan is too broad and may not accurately meet the specific needs of modern missile defense systems for certain key minerals.
Previously, Corry Combs, deputy director of the Beijing-based research institution Trivium China, also said that it may take years for the U.S. to have enough rare earth supply for reserves, and by the time it does, China may no longer need to use export controls as a bargaining chip.
"We do believe that rare earth export controls are a tool for the next five years," Combs said, "At that time, China will be more technologically secure, and the threat from the U.S. will be reduced, so the motivation for China to maintain strict rare earth export controls will be much less."
In April last year, as a countermeasure to Trump's tariff measures, China implemented export controls on seven medium-heavy rare earths including terbium and dysprosium. In October, China expanded the scope of control to include another five rare earth elements. After that, the U.S. and China reached a temporary "trade truce," and China suspended the measures announced in October for a year, but the export licensing system implemented in April remained in effect.
The South China Morning Post reported that the White House previously revealed that Trump planned to visit China from March 31 to April 2. Sources said that the rare earth issue is likely to be one of the top priorities of Trump's trip. However, the Chinese side has not officially confirmed this itinerary. If it goes ahead, it will be the first visit by a U.S. president to China since Trump's visit in 2017. Before that, the U.S. and China are reportedly set to hold a new round of high-level trade talks this week, with topics including tariffs, investment, and rare earths.
Professor Zhao Minghao, vice director of the American Studies Research Center at Fudan University, said that the U.S. may seek more assurances from China to ensure that U.S. companies can obtain a stable supply of rare earths, while China may use this opportunity to request the U.S. make "necessary concessions" on issues such as tariffs and export controls.
However, sources revealed that as Trump faces a difficult mid-term election, the expectation of significant breakthroughs from China has decreased. The source also mentioned that it is unclear whether a business delegation will accompany Trump on his visit to China. Some U.S. business executives have already reserved time in their schedules in case they are required to go to Beijing at the last minute. Due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies, many U.S. companies are becoming more cautious about related arrangements, fearing that they might send the wrong signals or express opinions too early.
After the U.S. attacked Iran, China has also become more cautious about Trump's visit. Professor Pei Minxin (音) from the Claremont McKenna College in California also noted that "an increasingly popular view among Chinese elites and the public is that the U.S. is untrustworthy." He is worried that this will also affect Trump's planned visit to China.
Regarding Trump's statement that he will visit China later this month, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said on February 2 that China and the U.S. are maintaining communication on interactions between the two heads of state, and I currently have no information to provide.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/7615806221212107279/
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