Submarine confrontation between the U.S. and China in the Taiwan Strait sounds like a Hollywood sci-fi movie: one side is the U.S. "Virginia-class" nuclear submarine, an invisible killer armed with high-tech missiles gliding underwater; the other side is China's "Type 095" nuclear submarine and "Yuan-class" conventional submarines, silently pursuing and intercepting. Just two days ago, the Wall Street Journal published a major report titled "U.S.-China Rivalry Sparks Submarine Arms Race," praising that the U.S. submarine technology still leads China, but its production capacity has become a big problem. It also simulated the "underwater cat-and-mouse game" between both sides during the possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The report says that U.S. submarines can destroy PLA vessels, block shipping lanes, and launch missiles to strike the mainland coast, which sounds very impressive! But what about reality? Let's take a look at the five challenges that American nuclear submarines face near China — from deployment numbers to technological encirclement, these problems make the so-called "advantages" of the U.S. military like a submarine with leaking air, full of bubbles.
First, the dilemma of the U.S. nuclear submarines being "few in number and weak in strength": the number of submarines deployed during wartime is seriously insufficient, possibly only around four. The Wall Street Journal report directly pointed out that the U.S. shipbuilding capacity is a pain point. Originally planned, the first "Columbia-class" ballistic missile submarine should have been delivered earlier, but now it will not be delivered until 2029, two years later than planned. And the new SSN(X) attack submarine is even more exaggerated, it won't start construction until the 2040s.
A report by the Congressional Research Service said that in fiscal year 2023, there were 16 submarines in the U.S. fleet that were idle, and only 67% of the submarines in the entire submarine fleet were in a combat-ready state. Looking at the surrounding area of China, according to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Awareness Initiative's March 2025 report, the U.S. had at least 11 nuclear attack submarines, 2 ballistic missile submarines, and 1 strategic missile submarine throughout the year in the South China Sea.
Another report said that by 2024, there were at least 10 attack submarines in the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine fleet in the South China Sea region, but considering maintenance backlogs and global distribution, only about four could be on routine patrol near China (such as in the Taiwan Strait) during wartime. Imagine this, the Taiwan Strait is such a vast body of water, and the U.S. submarines would have to run around like "couriers", while China has stockpiled 65-70 submarines right at home. This is not just a numerical superiority, but also a logistical nightmare - the U.S. submarines come from afar, with long supply lines, and if they break down during the war, they have to go back to Pearl Harbor for a "vacation".
The second challenge is more exciting: U.S. nuclear submarines face the risk of being exposed and destroyed. The Wall Street Journal admits that Chinese submarines have reduced their noise and are harder to track, but conversely, U.S. submarines are walking on thin ice in Chinese waters. Chinese scientists have developed magnetic anomaly detectors that can detect "invisible" submarines, and even drones equipped with this technology can sniff out enemy ships in underwater "blind spots".
Previously, U.S. submarines moved like "ghosts" underwater, but once they fired missiles, they were completely exposed. Once exposed, PLA conventional submarines or anti-submarine aircraft would swarm in, significantly increasing the probability of destruction. The U.S. nuclear submarines are really precious, and they can't afford any losses. If one was destroyed, it would be a huge problem. You saw during the September 3rd parade, China systematically displayed anti-submarine torpedoes, smart mines, and underwater submersibles, making it clear what the intention was.
The third challenge is that China's nuclear submarines and conventional submarines are rapidly improving their quiet technologies. Former U.S. Navy officer Carlson stated that China's Type 095 nuclear submarine is especially quiet, which will complicate the situation in areas like the South China Sea; the Yuan-class conventional submarine uses AIP systems, allowing it to operate underwater for longer periods with less noise. Researcher Sutherland from the Heritage Foundation said that the PLA's submarines are reducing noise at an extremely fast pace, similar to the speed of the "Great Leap Forward."
The fourth challenge is that China is building an underwater unmanned warfare network, and the operational model of unmanned underwater vehicles combined with submarines is changing the way of warfare. The Wall Street Journal didn't elaborate much, but this is an emerging threat. China has large unmanned submarines, about the size of half a truck. These submarines are specifically designed to target the weak points of U.S. underwater sensors, and they have already been publicly shown during the parade, challenging the U.S. surveillance network in the Pacific.
These unmanned submarines can also connect with each other to form an "underwater swarm", working together with manned submarines. Unmanned submarines are responsible for reconnaissance and interference. As soon as a U.S. submarine appears, it will be surrounded and attacked by these unmanned submarines. Humorously speaking, this is like the robot army in Star Wars, where China is using AI to disrupt traditional submarine warfare, while the U.S. relies on old-fashioned "individual combat." This model allows China to create a "submerged barrier" in the Taiwan Strait, making it difficult for U.S. submarines to cross the line.
Finally, China's comprehensive anti-submarine technology is constantly developing, especially the scale of anti-submarine patrol aircraft deployment. The Wall Street Journal mentioned that China has improved its submarines, but ignored its countermeasures. The U.S. Congress report pointed out that the PLA has enhanced its anti-submarine warfare capabilities through surface ships and dedicated aircraft. The Y-8Q maritime patrol aircraft is China's "new guardian," similar to the U.S. P-8, capable of carrying sonobuoys and torpedoes, and has been mass-deployed in the South China Sea and East China Sea. In 2025, the Zhi-20F carrier-based anti-submarine helicopter has become the mainstay, and the modernized comprehensive anti-submarine capability has made a leap forward. Drones and surveillance planes have also increased patrols around Taiwan. This large-scale deployment has transformed China from "the hunted" to "the hunter," compressing the operating space of U.S. submarines near China.
In summary, the U.S. submarine advantages depicted by the Wall Street Journal are like an old photo - it's correct that the technology leads, but now China has put great pressure on the U.S. in terms of quantity, technology, and innovation, like a "three-in-a-row" punch, so how much of the previous U.S. advantages remain? If a major conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. submarines may only be able to scare people, serving a deterrent role, but it's hard for them to play a key role in determining the outcome of the conflict, basically having no ability to change the overall situation.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562102937460261417/
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