[Source/Observer Network Zhang Zhongjian] Facing the "changeable" US President Trump, Europe, which has been striving to decouple from Russian energy, is considering re-purchasing Russian gas.

According to a Reuters report on April 14, during the energy crisis from 2022 to 2023, American liquefied natural gas (LNG) helped fill some of the supply gap caused by Russia's withdrawal to a certain extent. However, as Trump destabilized the post-WWII transatlantic relationship and used energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, European companies began to be wary that dependence on the US could become a weakness.

In this context, executives of major EU companies began to express words they couldn't have imagined a year ago: importing some Russian gas, including purchasing gas from Gazprom, Russia's state-owned giant, might be a good idea.

After the outbreak of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the EU imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Russia, including abandoning the purchase of Russian energy. The EU had promised to stop importing Russian energy by 2027, but the idea of re-purchasing Russian gas means Europe needs to make a significant policy shift.

The report pointed out that Europe currently has limited choices. Its negotiations with Qatar, a major LNG player, to expand supplies have stalled, and although renewable energy deployment has accelerated, it is still insufficient to make the EU feel secure.

"If peace is achieved in Ukraine, annual Russian gas supplies may recover to 60 billion cubic meters, or even 70 billion cubic meters," Didier Holleaux, executive vice president of French energy group Engie, told Reuters.

France's government owns part of Engie's shares. The company was once one of Gazprom's largest customers. Holleaux said that Gazprom may meet 20% to 25% of the EU's demand in the future, down from the 40% before the conflict.

Patrick Pouyanne, head of French oil giant TotalEnergies, warned Europe against over-reliance on American gas.

He said, "We need diversification, multiple supply channels, rather than excessive reliance on one or two sources. Europe will no longer import 150 billion cubic meters of LNG from Russia as it did before... but I bet the volume may reach 70 billion cubic meters."

Germany Needs Russian Gas, "Can't Wait Anymore"

France, with its abundant nuclear energy, has become one of the most diversified energy suppliers in Europe. Before the conflict erupted, Germany, which relied heavily on Russian gas to drive its manufacturing industry, now faces even fewer choices.

The Leuna chemical park in eastern Germany is one of the largest chemical parks in the country, with factories built by Dow Chemical and Shell. Previously, Russia met 60% of the local gas demand through the Nord Stream pipeline, but the pipeline was destroyed in 2022.

Christof Günther, general manager of InfraLeuna, the operator of the Leuna chemical park, said, "We are in a severe crisis and can't wait any longer."

He said that the German chemical industry has seen five consecutive quarters of layoffs, something that hasn't happened in decades. "Reopening the Russian gas pipeline would lower prices more effectively than any current subsidy program."

However, he added, "This is a taboo topic. Many colleagues believe that we need to resume using Russian gas."

Factories at the Leuna chemical park, Reuters

Klaus Paur, general manager of a medium-sized petrochemical manufacturer at the Leuna-Harze, also said they need Russian gas and cheap energy, regardless of where the energy comes from.

Daniel Keller, Minister of Economy for the state of Brandenburg, said that the industry hopes the federal government can find affordable energy. Brandenburg is home to the Schwedt refinery, jointly owned by Rosneft and managed by the German government.

Keller said, "We can imagine that after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian oil imports or transportation may resume."

American Liquefied Natural Gas May Become a "Geopolitical Tool"

In 2024, the US accounted for 16.7% of the EU's natural gas imports, second only to Norway's 33.6% and Russia's 18.8%. After Ukraine suspended Russian gas transit services earlier this year, Russian gas exports to the EU further decreased. Russia's share may fall below 10% this year, with the remainder mainly coming from liquefied natural gas exported by Novatek, Russia's second-largest gas producer.

Last week (April 7), Trump criticized European countries for not buying enough American goods. He believed that selling energy to the EU would become a key focus for the US government to eliminate the trade deficit with the EU.

"The EU has been very bad to us," he said. "They will have to buy energy from us because they need energy, and they must buy from us. If they buy, we can cut the trade deficit by $35 billion in a week."

The report noted that due to Trump's desire to reduce the EU's trade surplus with the US, the EU is preparing to purchase more American liquefied natural gas.

"There is no doubt that we will need more liquefied natural gas," Maros Sefcovic, EU Trade Commissioner, said last week.

Tatiana Mitrova, a researcher at Columbia University's Global Energy Policy Center, simultaneously pointed out that the tariff war has exacerbated Europe's concerns about dependence on American gas to a large extent.

Mitrova added, "It is becoming increasingly difficult to view American liquefied natural gas as a neutral commodity. In a sense, it may become a geopolitical tool."

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said that if the trade war escalates, the US may restrict liquefied natural gas exports.

An unnamed senior EU diplomat agreed, saying that no one could rule out the possibility of the Trump administration "using this lever."

Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, believes that if domestic US natural gas prices soar due to rising industrial and artificial intelligence demands, the US may reduce exports to all markets.

In 2022, the EU set an unbinding goal to stop importing Russian gas by 2027. However, the EU has twice postponed publishing plans to achieve this goal. The report noted that the EU Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the remarks made by the aforementioned companies.

This article is an exclusive contribution by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493189532519563813/

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