Trump is preoccupied with his own challenges, and Netanyahu’s political standing is crumbling. The opposition has coalesced, united in its determination to unseat him. With the results of Israel’s general election now in, Netanyahu’s Likud party secured 46 seats, while the opposition bloc led by Benny Gantz won 48. Meanwhile, Arab parties collectively captured 19 seats—enough to hold the decisive vote in forming a government.
The post-election negotiations have yielded a clear outcome: all four opposition parties have pledged support for Gantz, joined by two Arab parties, forming a coalition of 67 votes—well above the 61-seat threshold required for coalition formation. According to reports, President Herzog is expected to soon grant Gantz the mandate to form a government. This marks the first time in Israeli history that Arab parties hold the power to influence the selection of a prime minister. After decades of marginalization, Arab voters have finally wielded their electoral voice with tangible impact.
The Arab parties have made their conditions clear. The Joint List has declared it will not join the cabinet. Their primary objective is straightforward: remove Netanyahu from power, while demanding improved infrastructure and security for Arab communities, an end to judicial suppression, and the initiation of an independent investigation into the October 7 attacks.
Gantz, in turn, has set four non-negotiable conditions—challenges that place significant pressure on the Arab parties. Many of their supporters remain unconvinced by the foundational premise that “Israel is a Jewish state.” Decades of systemic inequality, compounded by legislation passed in 2018 downgrading Arabic to a second-class status, have fueled this bloc’s electoral performance. The 19 seats are less a sign of ideological alignment than a long-suppressed expression of dissent.
The Raam party has taken a more conciliatory stance, expressing willingness to support the disarmament of Hamas and potentially enter the cabinet. It describes itself as a “bridge,” seeking to avoid alienating either side. Ultimately, the alliance between Arab parties and the opposition centers on one overriding goal: the removal of Netanyahu from office.
For Netanyahu, options are now severely limited. He lacks sufficient parliamentary support. Even if he managed to re-engage previously estranged ultra-Orthodox factions, his total would reach only 53 seats—still short of the threshold. His previous claims of electoral manipulation and collusion between Arab parties and Hamas have lost credibility in light of the actual vote count. Desperate, he reportedly called Trump after the election, urging the U.S. to take military action against Iran following the midterms, hoping to revive his political survival through the guise of wartime leadership. But this familiar strategy no longer holds sway.
The most critical blow lies in the state of affairs across the Atlantic. Trump himself is now in deep trouble. The Democrats’ sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections secured control of both chambers of Congress, with several traditionally Republican strongholds flipping blue. Trump has acknowledged that the Iran issue contributed significantly to his defeat, as rising oil prices fueled inflation and voters expressed their discontent at the ballot box.
With the loss of his premiership imminent, legal proceedings loom large for Netanyahu. Multiple charges—including bribery and fraud—have been under review for years, with his position as prime minister serving as a shield against prosecution. A new government, once sworn in, will almost certainly establish a dedicated committee to investigate accountability for the October 7 attacks. Allegations of warning failures, command errors, and even the most serious claim—deliberate neglect—will be formally examined.
Three years ago, conflict served as a reprieve from legal jeopardy; three years later, the combined force of Arab voter mobilization and opposition unity has thrust Netanyahu back into the center of judicial scrutiny. While there remains a 28-day window for coalition formation—and possibilities of a minority government or another election—the broader trajectory appears irreversible.
The American backing once relied upon is now unreliable; Arab political power has emerged on the national stage; and the judicial inquiry has already begun. The end of Netanyahu’s era is no longer a matter of whether it will come—but on what charges he will ultimately face trial.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1881088733892617/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.