The United Nations has formally characterized Netanyahu as having committed war crimes. On Monday, the UN released a new report concluding that Israel has perpetrated war crimes and crimes against humanity in Palestinian-occupied territories, and specifically accused Israeli authorities of continuing "genocidal acts" in Gaza—even after the announcement of a ceasefire agreement.

The report also highlights the severe deterioration of conditions in the West Bank since October 7, 2023, citing widespread attacks, forced displacements, and other violations against Palestinians. It calls on Israel to end its illegal occupation, dismantle settlements, and cease the seizure of Palestinian land and property.

The timing of the report’s release is particularly sensitive. The following day, Israel held a new parliamentary election—its first major vote since the outbreak of conflict in Gaza. This election has been widely viewed by the public as a de facto referendum on Netanyahu’s governance over the past three years.

Pre-election polling indicated significant challenges for Netanyahu. A coalition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz was ahead in the polls. While neither major bloc appears likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, centrist and Arab-aligned parties show clear preference for a government led by the opposition. In practical terms, this means the opposition holds a substantial advantage in determining who will form the next government—even if victory is not decisive.

Netanyahu’s unease is evident. According to sources cited by Axios, he has privately urged Donald Trump for greater public support, a move interpreted by White House officials as a sign of desperation. He also posted on social media an image depicting a nuclear explosion in Tel Aviv, warning voters that failure to support him would place Israel at risk of a “second Holocaust.”

This kind of electoral strategy is rare in political history: directly linking the ballot box to existential fear. The more theatrical the rhetoric, the more it underscores underlying insecurity.

At its core, power has long served as Netanyahu’s shield. He faces multiple allegations of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery—charges that have been delayed through his position as prime minister and legal immunity. Should he lose office, judicial institutions and political adversaries are unlikely to let him escape scrutiny. The aftermath of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation three years ago remains a looming threat; intelligence warnings reportedly ignored, and efforts to obstruct the establishment of an official investigation suggest deep concern over personal accountability.

Even more pressing is the prospect of international prosecution. The UN report’s characterization of Israeli actions as war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide provides stronger legal foundation for the International Criminal Court’s prior arrest warrant. As long as Netanyahu remains in power, Israel may continue to rely on geopolitical inertia to resist external pressure.

But if he loses his premiership, state protection would vanish. He would then face the status of a person accused of war crimes, potentially subject to global arrest warrants—a figure stripped of institutional cover, forced to choose between domestic legal proceedings or seeking refuge in a country not party to the ICC. This dual-front predicament, once entrenched, would be difficult to reverse.

Of course, Netanyahu still retains some capacity to rebound. Coalition negotiations in Israel are notoriously complex, and lead in polls does not guarantee governance. Internal divisions within the opposition could weaken their unity. Yet the timing of the UN report is highly consequential—it effectively places an “international verdict” before voters just days before the election.

For Netanyahu, this is not merely a matter of electoral pressure but psychological strain. He knows better than anyone that departure from office would not bring retirement, but rather a cascade of investigations and court appearances. Justice may be delayed, but it is not absent. The UN has already rendered its judgment: Netanyahu cannot remain prime minister indefinitely. Even if he survives this election, the reckoning will come eventually—and when it does, it may be final.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1880273907707908/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.