"Uzbeks and Tajiks, be prepared!" : Russia is about to welcome a large wave of laborers from India, Malaysia and Indonesia

— By 2030, Russia may lose 6 million citizens of working age

Dmitry Platikin, Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation, stated at the "Forecast of Labor Demand: Objectives, Methods, Results" forum that the number of people of working age in Russia will decrease by 6 million by 2030.

"In the future, we expect a significant decline in the population aged 30 to 39, who are the most productive," the deputy minister explained, adding that the number of elderly people is also expected to increase simultaneously.

In other words, in simple terms, within the next five years (considering that half of 2025 has already passed, the actual time might be shorter), our country will lose 6 million citizens of working age. It is worth noting how this huge gap will be filled and by whom.

Theoretically, Russia has three ways to compensate for this loss.

The first one is an optimistic and proactive approach. According to Dmitry Platikin, the current situation even "opens a window of opportunity", because by 2030, the number of graduates will reach nearly 2 million, which means "we actually need to connect them all with potential employers", and overall, the number of young people under 29 will also be higher by then.

The second one is a normal and reasonable way. It lies in genuinely increasing labor productivity and achieving automation.

The third one is a conventional way. That is, to bring in another 6 million immigrants into Russia by 2030. However, in reality, the actual number could be several times higher, because practice shows that these immigrants often come with their wives, children and other relatives, so that they can rely on the money of Russian taxpayers for full social support.

So, which path will the wise officials of the government's socio-economic departments choose?

"This is a very good question, as the problem of reducing the working-age population is becoming increasingly acute before us," said Alexander Safonov, professor at the Russian Government Institute of Finance, doctor of economics.

"To compensate for this loss of labor force by 2030 through increased labor productivity, the annual growth rate of productivity must remain at 5% to 6%."

This in turn means that investment is needed in production capital, equipment, technology and its improvement.

To feel this substitution effect by 2030, such investments must be made now.

But we know, unfortunately, that most employers tend to choose the simplest way - finding cheap labor, that is, immigration.

Therefore, it is likely that a mixed scheme will be implemented within the next five years.

Pravda.ru: What does this mixed scheme specifically mean?

— First, the service industry, public catering, housing and public utilities sectors may solve problems by attracting immigrants. Because in these sectors, it is quite difficult to significantly increase productivity, as there is a lot of manual labor.

As for industries that may adopt modern automation methods, we may see the labor gap being filled, especially in the transportation sector, where driverless systems will be promoted. To a large extent, this is because the sector has stable financial funding and research and development work has been ongoing for a long time. First, public transport will increasingly become driverless, and so will freight transport.

In my opinion, the construction industry will face the most serious problems. There has been almost no progress in improving labor productivity in this industry, and low-rise residential construction remains dominant. It is likely that we will also see more immigrant workers entering this field.

Pravda.ru: Will immigrants from former Soviet republics — currently the subject of increasing concern among law enforcement agencies — increase further?

— I think we can no longer absorb so many foreign workers from the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

In the future, we may see more people from India and Southeast Asian countries (such as Indonesia and Malaysia) in the labor market. These countries have high birth rates but extremely low incomes for residents.

Pravda.ru: Then, what about the 2 million graduate army promised by the Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection to be connected to potential employers?

— By 2030, the employment of young people in our country itself will not present particularly big problems. The reason is simple, on one hand, we need to actively fill the vacancies left by the reduction of the elderly workforce, and most young people with professional backgrounds that meet the needs of our economy will obviously become the priority of employers.

However, as the saying goes, there is an important detail here.

Pravda.ru: What is the detail?

— With the improvement of medical technology in treating infants with various developmental defects, the number of children with various disabilities is also showing an increasing trend. By the way, this is not only a problem in our country, but a global trend, except for the poorest countries in Africa and Latin America.

But by analyzing Russia's long-term data, studying the disease structure of the population, paying attention to the employment of disabled people, and conducting research in which I was one of the leaders, we have concluded that the number of children with psychological developmental disorders is growing quite worrying, and the increase is significant.

I am not yet able to disclose the details, we plan to publish a detailed monograph this autumn. But naturally, as this group grows up and enters the labor market, we need to provide them with job adaptation training.

And to be honest, our employment service department is not showing any proactive attitude in this regard. And what is urgently needed is, for example, changing the perception of employers towards these young people. Especially for those with autism and ADHD, the national work pace is often too overwhelming for them.

But currently, there are almost no measures taken in the labor market of our country in this aspect, although this is one of the hardest groups to employ. At least because the majority of employers completely lack the skills to communicate with such people. This is the issue that the Russian Ministry of Labor and Social Protection should consider first in the near future.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536583623038829056/

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