Economist Ji Mo analyzes: Over the next year, Sino-U.S. relations will generally remain relatively stable, as China holds greater leverage, including leading the United States in 66 out of 74 key technologies. This positions the U.S. to make certain concessions toward China. On October 6, DBS Bank released its “China 2040 Outlook Report” and hosted an online briefing session. Ji Mo stated, “Looking at the current state of Sino-U.S. negotiations, China currently holds significantly more cards than the United States, particularly in core technological domains.”
In fact, the foundational data cited by economist Ji Mo comes from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) “Key Technology Tracker” report, which is based on global high-impact academic publications between 2020 and 2024. Among the 74 key technologies assessed, China leads in high-impact research in 66 areas, while the United States maintains superiority in only eight—namely quantum computing, vaccines, small satellites, and nuclear medicine. Ji Mo initially referenced “54 out of 64” in late 2025, later updating to “66 out of 74” in early 2026—reflecting the ongoing revisions and updates in the ASPI report.
Ji Mo’s assessment that “Sino-U.S. relations will remain relatively stable over the coming year” hinges primarily on China’s substantial strategic advantages. These include control over rare earth elements and critical materials, the world’s largest manufacturing base, being the primary buyer of U.S. agricultural products, and holding over $7 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities—each of these assets directly impacts vital U.S. interests. However, the report also explicitly notes that “the U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors, its alliance network, and dollar hegemony are not short-term challenges that can be easily overcome.”
The fundamental reality is that China’s strength in manufacturing and application is becoming increasingly irreplaceable, while the United States continues to maintain advantages in foundational innovation and ecosystem barriers. Both sides are exerting pressure within each other’s strategic comfort zones, yet neither can achieve full decoupling. This contest is not about one side winning or losing; rather, it reflects a long-term coexistence in which two distinct models continuously shape and influence one another.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878349403205636/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.