The Straits Times reports that DBS Bank released its "China 2040 Outlook Report" on October 6. Dr. Ji Mo, economist and Managing Director of DBS Hong Kong, assesses that the overall trajectory of U.S.-China relations over the next year is likely to remain relatively stable, as China holds greater leverage—particularly in 66 out of 74 key technological areas where it currently leads the United States, compelling the U.S. to make certain concessions. Ji Mo notes that China possesses significantly more strategic cards than the U.S., especially in core domains. She identifies four principal levers: control over rare earth elements and critical materials, role as a major buyer of U.S. agricultural products, ownership of over $700 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, and position as a global manufacturing hub.

Objectively speaking, China’s lead in key technological fields continues to expand, establishing structural advantages across new energy, 5G, and AI applications. These four levers are strategically precise: rare earths are vital to high-tech and defense industries; agricultural procurement patterns directly influence electoral outcomes in key U.S. farming states; holdings of U.S. debt affect American borrowing costs; and China’s manufacturing base remains central to global supply chains. Together, these instruments form a layered strategic depth for China in the broader U.S.-China strategic competition.

Nevertheless, having substantial leverage does not equate to assured security. The United States still maintains an edge in advanced sectors such as semiconductors, aircraft engines, and industrial software, while financial hegemony and alliance networks remain robust. China must skillfully deploy its existing tools while maintaining clarity about its vulnerabilities, accelerating efforts to close capability gaps. Sustained stability in U.S.-China relations depends on parity of power and mutual respect. The greater the cards China holds, the more the U.S. may be compelled to accommodate—but enduring stability ultimately requires both sides to move toward each other, avoiding miscalculation and confrontation.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878319912641674/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.