[By Guancha Observer, Liu Chenghui]

"If Trump believes he can undermine trust in American allies, declare imperial ambitions, exit United Nations agencies, and still compete with China, he is likely to be disappointed."

The website of the U.S. "Foreign Affairs" magazine published an article co-authored by renowned international relations scholar and the originator of the term "soft power," Joseph Nye, on June 2nd under the title "The End of the Long American Century: Trump and the Foundations of American Power." Joseph Nye passed away in May this year, and the article was still in the final draft stage at that time.

The article discusses the impact of Trump's administration policies on American power and the international order. Joseph Nye severely criticized Trump's short-sightedness in the article: although Trump himself recognizes America's dominant position in the global system, he overly relies on the use of hard power, including sanctions, to coerce allies and withdraw from international cooperation mechanisms, cut research funding, and other destructive policies, weakening rather than enhancing the international order led by America, and damaging America's long-term advantages, especially its soft power derived from culture and values. The article suggests that Trump's actions may accelerate the end of the "American Century."

"While President Trump tries to pressure the world according to America's will, he also wants to isolate America from the world," the article mentions. Whether it's threatening to annex Greenland, "regain" the Panama Canal, withdraw from the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement, or issue tariff threats to countries including China, Trump dares to act because he recognizes America's strong position in trade and military matters; other countries depend on America's vast consumer market and military protection capabilities, so America can use these means to pressure and coerce other nations.

However, although Trump understands the source of America's strength, he uses it destructively. By attacking "interdependence," he weakens the foundation of America's power and accelerates the collapse of the international order established since World War II, which has been the greatest beneficiary of America.

Illustration: Joseph Nye

The article mentioned America's "advantage of deficits": in an interdependent economic relationship, asymmetry gives the less dependent party an advantage, and the deficit side has more leverage in negotiations, while surplus countries find it difficult to effectively counteract due to limited import scales.

From this perspective, America is in a favorable position in its relationships with its seven major trading partners, with highly asymmetric trade with China, Mexico, and Southeast Asian countries, where export volumes are more than twice the import volumes.

However, it should be noted that the advantage of the deficit country is not immutable and may weaken due to countermeasures from the other side. For example, purely from a trade perspective, China is in the weakest position, with a ratio of exports to imports as high as 3:1. However, China can retaliate by punishing important American companies operating in China (such as Apple and Boeing) or targeting key domestic political forces (such as soybean farmers and Hollywood); China can also exert "hard power," such as cutting off rare metal supplies.

The article then discussed what constitutes "real power," pointing out that the Trump administration overlooked an important dimension of power—soft power. It was precisely because Trump overly relied on coercion and hard power that he weakened trust among allies and damaged America's international image, while China simultaneously strengthened both hard and soft power construction.

"Power is the ability to make others act as you wish. This goal can be achieved through coercion, enticement through benefits, or appeal. The first two are hard power, and the third is soft power. In the short term, hard power usually prevails over soft power, but in the long run, soft power often takes precedence. Allegedly, Stalin once mocked an article asking 'How many divisions does the Pope have?' However, the Pope still exists today, while the Soviet Union has become history."

Joseph Nye believed that America had accumulated very strong soft power over the past 80 years, but Trump did not recognize the strength and role of this soft power, preferring to rely on the hard power of trade dependence relationships. Coercing allies like Canada or Denmark undermined trust in America's alliances on a broader scale.

Trump's neglect of appeal is a neglect of a key source of American power. In the long run, this is a failed strategy. If America continues to behave like a bully overseas, the soft power brought by American culture is unlikely to survive the next four years.

In Asia, China has been increasing investment in its military and economic hard power, but also cultivating appeal. If Trump continues to weaken America's soft power, global public opinion will significantly tilt toward China.

China is actively filling any gaps created by Trump. China views itself as a leader of the "Global South," and "Belt and Road" infrastructure projects not only aim to attract other countries but also reflect economic hard power. More countries consider China their largest trading partner instead of America.

"If Trump believes he can undermine trust in American allies, declare imperial ambitions, destroy USAID, challenge domestic rule of law, exit UN agencies, and still compete with China, he is likely to be disappointed."

"The rise of Western populists like Trump is shrouded in the 'ghost' of globalization." The article pointed out that Western populists like Trump misjudge globalization as a demonic force, which actually undermines American power.

Globalization creates value through comparative advantages, though accompanied by "growing pains" such as job losses and immigration issues, it overall strengthens American power. However, Trump attributes economic fluctuations to foreigners and globalization, attempting to reverse globalization by imposing tariffs and setting up trade barriers. Not only does he ignore the decisive roles of technological change and capital, but this approach may also weaken America's own strength.

Historical experience shows that reversing globalization brings long-term negative impacts. Trade wars may escalate into conflicts, and geopolitical crises may accelerate trade decoupling. Therefore, Trump's attack on globalization is undoubtedly shortsighted, ultimately eroding the international order dominated by America and leaving America strategically passive.

The article also mentioned that climate change is a global phenomenon without borders. By halting support for international cooperation to address climate change, Trump will pay a heavy price. In other fields, interdependence remains a key source of American power. For instance, interactions and exchanges between scientists have produced significant positive impacts in accelerating discoveries and innovations, making Trump's drastic cuts to scientific research spending and attacks on international students akin to self-mutilation on a large scale.

"Global interdependence cannot be eliminated. As long as humans remain mobile and invent new communication and transportation technologies, it will continue. After all, globalization spans centuries, tracing its roots back to the Silk Road or even earlier."

The article concluded that the Trump administration's shortsightedness and obsession with coercive hard power may erode rather than strengthen the international order led by America. Trump focuses too much on the cost of allies "free-riding" on America, yet overlooks the fact that because America is the driver, America chooses the destination and route.

Trump seems unable to understand that America's power is rooted in interdependence. He is not "making America great again," but betting on a tragically weak strategy.

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Observer Network and cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512119072163660351/

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