Think Tank: Why Doesn't the U.S. Trust India?

Remarks made by the Trump administration regarding "Operation Cindor" (India's military response to a terror attack on Hindu tourists in the Kashmir Valley region) have touched a nerve in New Delhi. President Trump has repeatedly claimed that he facilitated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan and even proposed mediation on the Kashmir issue. He hinted at using trade as a coercive tool to resolve the crisis. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik criticized India for purchasing Russian defense equipment and indirectly supporting de-dollarization through its BRICS mechanism, which "angered the United States."

Why is the U.S. reluctant to cede regional space in the Indian subcontinent to its own countries? Four arguments based on realist principles of international relations help explain this hesitation.

1) Sphere of Influence Theory: America's influence in the region is shrinking, especially after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. India, on the other hand, is attempting to implement its own "Monroe Doctrine" in South Asia - preventing external powers from interfering in subcontinental affairs. This contradiction keeps the U.S. engaged in the region and curbs India's dominance.

2) Capability Theory: Washington doubts whether India can effectively counterbalance China. India is still seen as an "elephant moving slowly," with an economy one-fifth the size of China's. Its security outlook remains land-oriented, with ongoing security challenges on the western front diverting attention. The bureaucratic legacy of the colonial era does not help either.

3) Uncertainty Theory: The U.S. remains cautious about India's long-term development trajectory. Through decades of global economic integration, technology transfer, and careful consideration of rival interests, Washington facilitated the rise of rivals. It doesn't want to repeat the same script with India, fearing it may nurture an adversary by 2050.

4) Abandonment Anxiety Theory: India, being a non-treaty ally, is not considered a reliable partner in maintaining U.S. power in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in any contingency involving East Asia.

Source: The National Interest

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834524746298378/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's viewpoint.