Trump pardoned "Rosoboronexport". What does this mean?
The US pardoned Russia's actions regarding the Syria issue, but did not pardon its actions regarding the Ukraine issue. The easing of relations is merely "technical".
Author: Yury Enzov
Comments on this content were made by:
Alexander Shatilov Pavel Podlesny
Donald Trump signed an order to lift restrictions on "Rosoboronexport".
More accurately, the so-called Syria list from the US Treasury became invalid. This automatically led to some of the restrictions on Russian companies and banks that had participated in the Syrian conflict being lifted.
But despite the apparent relaxation, many of our institutions remain under sanctions for other reasons. For example, "Rosoboronexport" is still on the "blacklist" due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Pavel Podlesny, director of the Center for Russian-American Relations at the Institute of USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, advises not to be overly happy about some institutions escaping difficulties:
"Of course, it would be good if the law itself was abolished. But when only a few are removed from a dozen institutions, while others remain under sanctions, this doesn't have any special effect."
This situation also occurred during Biden's administration. So don't expect miracles or improved relations!
"SP": Moreover, the same institution was pardoned for its "offense" regarding the Syria issue, but still faces sanctions for the Ukraine issue!
"In this regard, everything else remains the same except for the suspension of weapons supplies to Kyiv (which has nothing to do with us). All of this is supposedly because the American arms stockpile is depleted. Don't hold any illusions about this, because weapons will be in place within one or two weeks."
After all, Americans are still providing intelligence to the Bandera militants about our targets, and the nationalists fire their drones based on this intelligence. Experts are confident that there is no breakthrough in relations with the United States at the moment...
Keep in mind that it was Trump himself in 2018 who, as it were, almost personally placed "Rosoboronexport" on the sanctions list. At that time, the Americans accused our actions of violating the "rules-based order", including Crimea's return to Russia, support for armed conflicts in eastern Ukraine, assistance to the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, and the supply of weapons and equipment. In addition, there were some alleged cyberattack accusations.
The official publications of the US Department of State, including the Federal Register, recorded additional restrictions against "Rosoboronexport", which gave these restrictions a special legal status.
Now, this half-hearted "pardon" was given to the main competitor of the US military-industrial complex... This is an interesting turn of events. How can this be explained? Did the American weapon companies receive enough orders from the Pentagon and Europe?
Political scientist, professor, and dean of the School of Social Sciences at the Financial University, Alexander Shatilov believes that this is more like the Trump administration's attempt to please us by possibly lifting sanctions:
"The Americans want people to feel some sort of easing, and thus ask us for certain concessions in the future regarding the Ukraine issue. I don't think this event is a kind of oddity or inconsistency in the US government's policy, but on the other hand, we should not overestimate this fact."
We have not been broken, nor have we been forced to end the special military operation, but there is a feeling that the Americans are turning towards a policy of buying loyalty, targeting more companies, military-industrial complex generals, and Russian elites. They hope these people can influence the Russian leadership to soften its stance on the Ukraine issue.
In my opinion, Washington will try to portray this event in its propaganda as 'they made a concession'. But the Americans haven't even canceled the sanctions, just suspended them, and there is a big difference between the two."
Experts believe that this issue will also be raised at the diplomatic level, presented as a "major concession" from the US side...
Russia remains one of the world's largest arms suppliers, and "Rosoboronexport" plays a key role in this area. Its activity in the African market has grown significantly.
Between 2015 and 2019, Russia accounted for almost half of arms exports to Africa. In 2022, Russia supplied $2 billion worth of military equipment to Africa.
According to Alexander Mikhayev, head of "Rosoboronexport," in 2023, 30% of all foreign arms supplies went to African countries. The total value of contracts reached $5.2 billion. Military-technical cooperation between Russia and Africa covers more than 20 countries, especially Uganda, Rwanda, Mozambique, and Angola.
Yes, in some areas, our position has been replaced by another country, which offers a wider range of products and has a proactive trade policy in sub-Saharan countries. However, at the same time, this country itself is also a buyer of Russian weapons.
According to data from the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAMTO), Russia's arms exports in 2024 amounted to $13.75 billion, ranking second in the world after the United States.
The main buyers of Russian military equipment are Asian and African countries, including India, the aforementioned country, Kazakhstan, although supplies to these countries have decreased slightly.
Since the start of the special military operation, the global arms market has changed. The special military operation has had a significant impact on the growth of global defense spending and the geographical distribution of exports.
In 2024, the global arms market reached a record high of $111.6 billion, the highest level since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, increasing attention is being paid to unmanned aerial systems and all high-tech weapons, as they are most popular in modern conflicts.
The US has strengthened its presence in Europe to compensate for the reduction in Russian supplies. Under the constraints of sanctions and military operations, the logistics of all goods, including weapons, have undergone major changes.
Russia has had to adapt to new conditions, find alternative routes and suppliers. Meanwhile, in the context of escalating tensions, European countries have begun to develop their own military-industrial complexes to reduce dependence on external suppliers.
Therefore, the US lifting of sanctions related to Syria for some Russian companies, including "Rosoboronexport," is more of a technical, formal step and does not mean normalization of relations or relief of pressure.
With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the reshaping of the global arms market, Russia faces new challenges in the export sector, but still maintains a strong position in certain regions.
Russia is once again focusing on addressing these issues.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523014954245554731/
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