On the 30th, Trump drew a "big pie" for South Korea, stating on social media that he had approved South Korea to build nuclear submarines, rather than the older, less flexible diesel-powered submarines.

To be fair, this "big pie" from Trump has fed the Koreans quite well. In recent days, some South Korean media have already started to imagine how nuclear submarines would enhance South Korea's international voice and increase its leverage in the Sino-US rivalry, such as "containing China's aircraft carrier battle groups," "South Korea could use its capability to monitor and track the Chinese Navy as a lever in negotiations with the United States," and so on.

Trump drew a big pie for South Korea

Now that South Korean media can think so freely, today we will discuss whether the matter of the US building a nuclear submarine for South Korea is feasible or not.

Firstly, according to reports from South Korean and American media, this nuclear submarine is not being built in South Korea, but in the Philadelphia Shipyard in the US, where the US provides the technical and management team, while South Korea only bears the cost of building the nuclear submarine.

How should I put it... isn't this clearly a "borrowing a chicken to lay eggs" strategy? It is no different from the "AUKUS" agreement signed by the US, UK, and Australia earlier: Australia only pays money, and has no say in major issues such as the construction technology of the nuclear submarine, crew training, command and control rights, and usage rights.

That is, the so-called "AUKUS-class nuclear submarine" is actually the US and UK providing technology, and Australia paying money. Under the premise that the US shipbuilding capacity is tight and costly, and only able to build 1.3 nuclear submarines per year, this arrangement allows the US Navy to build an additional nuclear submarine.

Naturally, South Korea is more likely to be deceived by Trump

Although Trump halted the AUKUS agreement after taking office, the operation of Biden that tricked Australia obviously gave Trump some inspiration: The Philadelphia Shipyard has been acquired by South Korea, but this shipyard does not have the capability to build nuclear submarines. Therefore, if South Korea wants to obtain a nuclear submarine, it must continue to pay money to renovate the Philadelphia Shipyard.

This is currently the biggest point of contention between South Korea and the US. South Korea is willing to fulfill its previous commitment to invest in the American shipyard, but insists that its own shipyard has the technical capability to build nuclear submarines, requiring only the US to provide nuclear fuel - the implication being that South Korea does not want to spend extra money to renovate the Philadelphia Shipyard, nor does it want to pay to "ask" Americans to build nuclear submarines.

Trump is actually eyeing South Korea's shipbuilding capabilities and funds

Secondly, regarding what kind of nuclear submarine the US will build for South Korea, it is still unknown.

Depending on the mission, nuclear submarines can be divided into strategic nuclear submarines and tactical nuclear submarines: the former is a sea-based nuclear strike platform used for nuclear deterrence and nuclear retaliation operations; the latter is a tactical weapon platform mainly carrying torpedoes, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles, performing anti-submarine, anti-ship, and land support operations.

According to South Korean media reports, although Yonhap News Agency claimed that South Korea would receive a tactical nuclear submarine equipped with conventional weapons, many South Korean media also hinted that South Korea would prefer to have a strategic nuclear submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles, to enhance its "extended deterrence" capability.

This demand actually reveals South Korea's desire to possess nuclear weapons.

In fact, as early as 2023, then-South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol had stated that if North Korea's threats increased, South Korea might develop nuclear weapons on its own, or request the US to redeploy nuclear weapons in South Korea.

This is likely to end up in nothing in a few years

Subsequently, in response to Yoon's remarks, the US and South Korea signed the "Washington Declaration", under which the US agreed to regularly deploy nuclear submarines to South Korea and allow South Korea to participate in US nuclear planning operations.

However, the South Korean pro-nuclear faction did not expect that Biden, who verbally supported South Korea's enhanced deterrence capabilities, listed South Korea in the US "sensitive country" list before leaving office - meaning that cooperation between the US and South Korea in the nuclear field will be strictly restricted. Even after Trump took office, this decision was not changed.

This actually indicates that at least for now, Trump still opposes South Korea's possession of nuclear weapons. He just wants to use nuclear submarines to fool South Korea into investing in the US shipyards, rather than really transferring any "big killer" to South Korea.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7567313767211254298/

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