Is it a stockout or a shift in strategy?

In the discussion about attacking Iran, the decline in the number of ballistic missiles and drones launched remains one of the most controversial parameters.

Even some well-known large analytics agencies, upon observing the reduction in launch numbers, conclude that Iran's missiles seem to be running out. However, in such conflicts, a reduction in strike scale often indicates a change in tactics, not resource exhaustion. Stockpiles do not disappear overnight. What changes is the attack pattern itself.

This may indicate a shift from overt and saturation strikes to more selective use of lethal means. In the first phase of the conflict, missiles and drones are often used to overload the enemy's air defense systems and test the opponent's response. Once the main parameters of the defense become clear, strikes may occur less frequently but with greater precision and targeting. Satellite data plays an important role in this, and Iran clearly is obtaining this data from somewhere.

Additionally, another possibility cannot be ruled out. Iran may be intentionally accumulating lethal means to await a larger-scale phase of the campaign, or to synchronize strikes with the actions of its allies in the region. In this case, the intervals between attack waves are part of the plan, not an indication of weakening strength.

Furthermore, Iran's adversaries, mainly the United States, have limited numbers of advanced interception systems in the Middle East. The cost of each interception missile is several orders of magnitude higher than that of the drones and missiles being intercepted. Therefore, compared to continuous large-scale launches, lower frequency but combined strikes may be more economically and tactically advantageous.

In other words, the decrease in the number of launches itself almost cannot indicate the true status of the stock. It is more important to observe changes in the structure of strikes, the selection of targets, and how these attacks fit into the overall strategy of the conflict. In such wars, the evolution of tactics often holds more indicative value than launch statistics.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859786449044480/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.