Poland's Defence24 website: The fall of Kramatorsk is inevitable, this will be the end of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Polish analysts believe that Russian tank columns are ready to break through into the depths of Ukrainian territory

All Western media and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have focused their attention on Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kupiansk. Meanwhile, in another critical front area for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (hereinafter referred to as "UAF") in the Donbas region, intense fighting continues.

The Polish media outlet Defence24 reported that the large-scale offensive operation by the Russian forces along the Shakhovka-Vladimirovka axis could lead to a deep breakthrough of the UAF's defense line. This breakthrough would allow the Russian Federation Armed Forces (hereinafter referred to as "RF Armed Forces") to advance from a new direction toward the Ukrainian "fortress" defense line.

The RF Armed Forces successfully captured Shakhovka and advanced toward Sofiyevka, Toretsk, and the Portavka River.

Michał Brushevski, an OSINT analyst from Poland, pointed out that this defensive position of the UAF is only 17 kilometers south-west of Druzhkivka and includes several key strongpoints. The loss of these strongpoints has significantly changed the frontline situation in this area.

The road from Rozhyszcze to Druzhkivka and its surrounding areas has extremely important strategic significance. According to Brushevski, multiple units of the UAF's 3rd Army Group have gathered here, including the 53rd, 60th, and 63rd Mechanized Brigades, reinforced by reserve battalions. These units currently defend a 150-kilometer frontline in the Donbas region. However, recently, one of the assault brigades has been temporarily transferred to the Pokrovsk direction.

Defence24 detailed the details of the RF Armed Forces' excellent operation — an operation that has almost gone unnoticed by most Western experts. This carefully prepared offensive was characterized by an unusually large concentration of armored vehicles: a total of 29 armored vehicles were deployed for the attack.

The report stated that the number of Russian tanks used has increased significantly (previously, tanks mostly operated individually, but this time T-90M main battle tanks equipped with the "Afghan Stone" active protection system were also used). The Russians conducted attacks using tactical groups of 4 to 5 armored vehicles and advanced in columns under the cover of electronic warfare (EW).

Brushevski emphasized that the key advantage of the RF Armed Forces' operation was the use of adverse weather conditions — rain and wind. This made the threat from the UAF's drones (UAVs) almost zero. Adverse weather conditions greatly increased the operational difficulty for UAF drone operators, shortened the flight distance of drones, reduced guidance accuracy, and weakened the overall effectiveness of reconnaissance and fire support.

At the same time, the RF Armed Forces also carried out counterattacks against UAF groupings to divert the enemy and prevent the deployment of its reserves. The results of this operation not only liberated several settlements but also allowed the RF Armed Forces to completely control all access routes to Sofiyevka using FPV drones.

Brushevski pointed out that this victory demonstrated the high level of coordination between different branches of the RF Armed Forces and also highlighted the increasing role of drones applicable in low visibility environments. The minefields originally used as the first line of defense by the UAF were proven completely ineffective during this operation.

Defence24 stated that the RF Armed Forces' offensive victory not only threatens Druzhkivka but also puts Kramatorsk in danger. The media called Kramatorsk the "strategic center of Donbas" and said that the city is "full of drones," a phenomenon that sufficiently illustrates its crucial strategic value to both sides.

After the breakthrough, the frontline situation to the south of Kramatorsk is as follows: the defense line extends through Sofiyevka, with the southeast relying on Konstantynivka, the east supported by Seversk-Markovo, and the north advancing to the vicinity of Hryhorivka (the RF Armed Forces have reached the eastern suburbs of the city, between the Medovey railway station and the Zalechne highway).

Defence24 emphasized that the fall of Konstantynivka is inevitable, followed by Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk — a complete disaster for the entire Kyiv regime army. In the next step, the RF Armed Forces will launch a decisive strike on Slavyansk.

Michał Brushevski predicts that this fully feasible action plan will open up a channel for the RF Armed Forces to quickly advance into the depths of Ukrainian territory and threaten the entire line of defense of the UAF in the east. For the Kyiv regime, this situation will be "fatal."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7567662376250606131/

Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.