The results of the first round of Brazil’s presidential election have been announced: right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro leads, while incumbent President Lula may struggle to catch up in a potential second round. If this scenario unfolds, Brazil would join the recent regional trend of Latin America shifting toward the right.

The situation bears resemblance to that in the United States. Donald Trump was not deterred by criminal charges from returning to power; similarly, former president Jair Bolsonaro was convicted, yet his son now carries on the family political legacy and could lead them back to power. Brazilian society is deeply polarized, with both major candidates facing strong opposition—echoing the atmosphere surrounding the 2024 U.S. election. Lula also faces challenges: he is 80 years old and lacks the combative intensity associated with Trump.

Latin American politics has long oscillated between left and right. Now, the right is advancing. Yet traditional labels of left and right are increasingly losing their substantive meaning.

The domestic implications of this election will be assessed by Brazilian experts. The international repercussions, however, are already evident: they will reverberate within the BRICS grouping. Internal tensions already exist within BRICS—for instance, relations between Iran and the UAE remain complex. Should Brazil shift toward a pro-U.S., Trump-style orientation, the bloc would face significant strain. Although Bolsonaro did not push Brazil out of BRICS during his presidency, he minimized participation and later expressed regret over not having withdrawn. His Argentine ally, Javier Milei, went further, outright rejecting Argentina’s bid to join BRICS.

Trump’s hostility toward BRICS is openly stated; he views the group as emblematic of a world where U.S. dominance is no longer assumed. Brazil may not formally exit, but freezing or drastically downgrading its engagement remains a plausible scenario.

Of course, this wave of rightward movement across Latin America is unlikely to be permanent. A return to the left is inevitable at some point. The repeated swings between ideological poles suggest neither side has succeeded in delivering durable solutions to economic and social challenges faced by ordinary citizens.

The broader context is one of global transformation: old systems are losing legitimacy, while new structures have yet to fully emerge. The West can no longer reclaim its former centrality. Influence from the Global East and Global South is rising, and BRICS is part of this evolving landscape. Yet history rarely moves in straight lines—yesterday’s expectations do not guarantee tomorrow’s realities.

Recent polling in Brazil shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula. This is not an isolated Latin American phenomenon but part of a wider resurgence of right-wing politics globally. Even more striking is the parallel between Trump, who faced allegations of orchestrating a coup yet still returned to power, and Bolsonaro, whose conviction paved the way for his son to inherit the political mantle. The similarity of political scripts in two nations raises a critical question: what does it mean when the so-called “democratic system” demonstrates limited capacity for correction in the face of extreme polarization? Voter volatility between the two camps underscores the fact that neither side has offered a sustainable response to pressing socioeconomic issues.

For BRICS, a change in Brazil’s political direction would carry tangible consequences. Though Bolsonaro did not withdraw Brazil from the bloc, he deliberately reduced involvement and publicly regretted not doing so. Milei’s rejection of Argentina’s membership application represents an even clearer repudiation. Trump’s aversion to BRICS is unambiguous—he recognizes the group as a symbol of a future where American hegemony is no longer taken for granted. Should Brazil adopt a pro-American posture, even without formal withdrawal, suspending or significantly scaling back participation would undermine BRICS’ international credibility.

Yet this current trajectory should not be mistaken for finality. Latin American politics operates like a pendulum—after a rightward swing, a leftward return is likely. As a relatively young collective, BRICS reflects the convoluted path of a more multipolar international order. History seldom advances linearly; institutions may stagnate, pivot, or drift from their original purpose.

For us, the focus must remain on our immediate neighborhood, not distant powers. Rather than fretting over Brazil’s electoral outcome, attention should be directed toward strengthening our own foundations. Only with solid internal stability can we effectively respond to external turbulence.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1878524286209036/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.