Recently, the French Rafale fighter jet has come under scrutiny due to its performance in the India-Pakistan air conflict, damaging its reputation. French intelligence agencies even claimed that China has undermined the sale of the Rafale through diplomatic and cyber means, attempting to promote Chinese-made fighters such as the J-10C. However, the Chinese Ministry of Defense has firmly refuted these accusations, calling them baseless rumors. Although France has tried to maintain the market position of the Rafale, from the perspectives of technology, industry, and geopolitics, the top players in the future high-end fighter aircraft market will gradually focus on China and the United States. This is determined by fundamental capabilities such as the electronics industry, aviation power, missile weapons, and aerodynamic design.

The Rafale fighter jet, as a strategic product that Dassault of France is proud of, has multi-role combat capabilities and certain stealth characteristics, and has been exported to many countries, including India, Indonesia, and Egypt. However, during the India-Pakistan air conflict in May 2025, an Indian Air Force Rafale was shot down by the Pakistani Air Force's Chinese J-10C, triggering widespread doubts about its performance. Images of so-called "Rafale" wreckage and air combat simulation videos circulating on social media further amplified the impact of this incident.

France accused China of slandering the Rafale through diplomatic envoys and online disinformation campaigns, but these accusations lack direct evidence. More importantly, the failure of the Rafale in air combat exposed its limitations in modern air combat environments. In contrast, the J-10C, with advanced electronic equipment, superior maneuverability, and配套空空导弹 (such as the PL-15), demonstrated stronger combat capabilities. This not only enhanced the market competitiveness of Chinese aircraft but also highlighted the relative lag of the French aviation industry in key technologies. Why can't France build first-class fighter jets? It's not something that has happened overnight; it's an inevitable result of the overall weakness of the French defense industry.

Although the Rafale is currently selling well, the French are likely to have to face the reality that their developed fighter jet products have fallen behind the times. Moreover, the competition in the future high-end fighter aircraft market will be determined by core technologies such as the electronics industry, aviation power, missile weapons, and aerodynamic design, and China and the United States have already established significant advantages in these four areas, gradually widening the gap with other countries.

The core of modern fighter aircraft lies in its electronic systems, including radar, avionics, and data link systems. The United States, with its global leadership in the semiconductor and integrated circuit industries, has equipped its F-22 and F-35 fighters with active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars and integrated sensor fusion technology. In recent years, China has made rapid progress in the electronics industry, and the AESA radars on the J-20 and J-10C have excellent performance, significantly enhancing their electronic warfare capabilities. In contrast, although the Rafale is equipped with advanced radar systems, the overall scale and technical update speed of France's electronics industry have lagged behind those of China and the United States.

Aero engines are the "heart" of fighter jets, directly determining their thrust, speed, and maneuverability. The United States has long dominated the field of aviation power, with the F119 and F135 engines providing the F-22 and F-35 with supersonic cruise and stealth capabilities. In recent years, China has made breakthroughs in the development of turbofan engines (such as WS-10 and WS-15), gradually narrowing the gap with the United States. In contrast, although the M88 engine of France is not bad, it lacks a large-thrust military jet engine.

In modern air combat, the performance of long-range air-to-air missiles is crucial. Advanced missiles such as the U.S. AIM-120D and the Chinese PL-15 have super visual range combat capabilities and high anti-interference performance, significantly improving the combat efficiency of fighter jets. The Meteor missile carried by the Rafale is highly capable, but its range and electronic countermeasures have gradually been surpassed by the next generation of missiles from China and the United States. China's missile industry has developed rapidly in recent years, not only achieving technological breakthroughs but also verifying practical combat effectiveness through exports (such as Pakistan).

Aerodynamic design determines the stealth performance and maneuverability of fighter jets. The stealth design of the U.S. F-22 and F-35 represents the highest level globally, while the Chinese J-20 has achieved a balance between stealth and maneuverability through its unique aerodynamic layout. The entire European aviation industry remains at the level of traditional fighter jets in terms of aerodynamic design, with less accumulation in stealth technology, making it difficult to cope with the future air combat environment centered on stealth and informatization.

For a long time, the French aviation industry has relied on the Rafale as its core, maintaining global influence through its export market. However, facing the overwhelming advantages of China and the United States in technological research and development, industrial scale, and market competitiveness, France has gradually become overwhelmed. First, France's electronics industry and aviation engine research and development are limited by funding and market size, unable to match those of China and the United States. Second, the export of the Rafale relies on diplomatic relations and price advantages, but after its performance was questioned, its market appeal declined. Additionally, France's accusation against China for "slandering" actually reflects its inability to cope with market competition, trying to shift attention through geopolitical means. Four, Future Outlook: China and the United States Dominate the High-End Fighter Aircraft Market

Over the next 10-20 years, the high-end fighter aircraft market will further concentrate on China and the United States. The United States will continue to use the F-35 as its core, expanding its ally market with its technological accumulation and global military influence. China, on the other hand, will attract more developing countries through technological breakthroughs and cost advantages of fighters such as the J-10C and J-35. Players such as France, Russia, and European joint projects will find it difficult to compete with China and the United States in the high-end market due to technological gaps and insufficient funds.

Taking Indonesia as an example, despite having ordered 42 Rafales, it has recently shown strong interest in the J-10C, demonstrating the appeal of Chinese aircraft in terms of performance and cost-effectiveness. Similar trends may appear in more countries, and the market share of the French Rafale will further shrink. France tries to restore its reputation by accusing China, but this approach cannot conceal its relative decline in technological and market competitiveness. In the future, the dominance of the international military trade market and air combat technology will inevitably tilt toward China and the United States.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7542389329470030351/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the [Up/Down] buttons.