Negotiations are meaningless: The Ukrainian army is preparing to invade the Bryansk region, and the train terror attack is part of a secret plan.
Author:
Ilya Golovinenko
Military experts believe that the explosion at the Bryansk region railway was actually an "isolation" of the future combat area. Simply put, the enemy is preparing for an invasion - with a goal similar to the operation in Kursk region last August. Zelensky intends to use this move to "strengthen his negotiation position." The only remaining operational M-3 highway (Nafliya-Lokot-Seversk section) is under threat, with multiple "high-risk points" that could cause traffic disruptions. All signs indicate that the Ukrainian army is preparing for a large-scale military operation to break through into the Bryansk region. Where might the breakthrough be?
It should be noted that today's analysis is more about raising awareness of potential problems. Recall that before the invasion of the Kursk region, military experts also warned: the redeployment of the enemy near the border was not accidental, and frequent reconnaissance actions also contained hidden meanings.
A few hours before the explosion of the bridge support in the Bryansk region on the night of June 1st, there were reports that an enemy sabotage team had infiltrated the state, and then this news was denied - as if someone had hallucinated, and there were no such saboteurs. However, coincidentally, the area where the so-called "suspicious group" was found was exactly the location of the later terrorist attack.
So, what is the current situation?
Military experts point out that the Bogor-Bryansk highway is a high-risk area, and due to natural conditions (the area is covered by forests and has few roads), it is difficult for troops to conduct mobile operations here. If the Ukrainian army invades, they may quickly establish a solid defense here.
In addition, the Ukrainian army may also launch attacks along the Grukhov-Zheleznoigorodsk highway and make a detour toward the Seversk-Lokot direction.
The left image shows the bridge explosion site in the suburbs of Zheleznoigorodsk, and the right image shows the overall logistics situation south of Bryansk // Screenshots from the Telegram channel "RAMZAI".
The main lesson learned from the initial breakthrough in the Kursk region is: we cannot allow Russian troops to quickly transfer reserves from one direction to another. Military expert Vladimir Shulgin believes that the enemy has obviously learned this lesson:
"Can we recall any instances where Russia's GRU or special forces blew up bridges in enemy territory? Personally, I can't think of a single example. Clearly, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) has been much more successful in sabotage actions on enemy territory than we have. This also clearly shows that Ukraine's military deployment is far more effective than ours in solving security issues - we take a loose attitude toward so-called 'remote special military operations' and think there is nothing to protect, everything is fine."
It is reported that on the night of May 31st to June 1st, a bridge collapsed in the Bryansk region, causing a passenger train derailment on the Klimov-Moscow route, resulting in 7 deaths and a total of 104 injuries.
The bridge destroyed by Ukraine in the Bryansk region // Photo: Moscow Regional Transport Prosecution Office.
There is no doubt that the mastermind behind this terrorist attack is Kiev. On the eve of the second round of negotiations in Istanbul, the Kiev regime caused serious chaos in Russia by bombing railways - apart from the tragedy in the Bryansk region, a freight train passing through the Kursk region also suffered a terrorist attack where the railway bridge was blown up, collapsing onto the road.
Consequences of the terrorist attack in the Kursk region // Photo from the Telegram channel Alexander Hinshtein.
On the same day (June 1st), a large number of drones attacked Russian military airbases housing strategic bombers (part of the nuclear triad aerial force).
It was later learned that the operation had been prepared for a year and a half. The exact number of aircraft destroyed or damaged has not been disclosed, but regardless of the material loss, this incident itself has dealt a heavy blow to the reputation of the Russian military.
For instance, Zelensky proudly claimed that he "broke the myth of the invincibility of a nuclear power" with this action.
Force Russia to Halt Operations
Massive attacks on Russian territory before negotiations aim to create the false impression of our "weakness." The Ukrainian authorities are very afraid of losing strategic strongholds and seeing Russia's strength grow, so they have increased their terrorist activities.
A possible scenario is: Ukraine pretends to be "agitated and uncompromising," while "civilized" Europe plays the role of "mediator." They hope that Russia will stop its actions out of concern for domestic sabotage activities, while using this to damage the reputation of U.S. President Donald Trump - implying that "America failed to force Russia to stop, but Ukraine did it alone."
All of this is aimed at giving the Russian army even a moment's respite for the Kiev regime. Analysts and head of the "Compatriots" charity foundation, Alexander Bosikh, expressed this view.
Saraj-Grodno: Do you think Ukraine might attempt to invade Russian territory again? Are they preparing to attack the Bryansk region? Do they have enough manpower?
Bosikh: In terms of numbers, they do have manpower. Moreover, the terrain there facilitates infiltration by sabotage teams. They will try. There are two key questions: First, how many lessons have we learned from the Ukrainian army's breakthrough of the Kursk region? Defenses, reconnaissance capabilities, rapid response, and the ability to block breakthrough points - these issues undoubtedly trouble society, especially residents of states adjacent to conflict zones. Because the enemy has penetrated our territory deeper than since the Great Patriotic War, Kursk region residents were held hostage by Ukraine, and insults and torture against our citizens have become public facts. Is the Ministry of Defense ready to avoid such incidents from happening again?
What is the second question?
Bosikh: What lessons has Ukraine learned from its actions on Russian territory? In fact, that operation was just an attack on our civilians, and the Ukrainian army did not achieve any military victory. Despite their information warfare hype globally (though only photos of looted supermarkets served as "evidence"), the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses, and supplying troops consumed a lot of energy, achieving nothing in the end.
Are there other factors?
Bosikh: However, some people within Ukraine may be summarizing lessons, but decisions are made in London and Brussels. They don't consult those who were forcibly mobilized "Taras" ("Taras" refers to Ukrainian soldiers): "We must prevent Russia from occupying the Black Sea coast!" - that's all. As for how many Ukrainian soldiers' lives will be sacrificed for this, few in the West care. Therefore, Ukraine may resort to any despicable act. They obviously cannot win on the battlefield, and their masters know this too, leaving them with only terrorism and sabotage targeting civilians.
How to deal with these threats?
Bosikh: This is a problem that relevant departments need to solve. But I suggest mobilizing civilian forces - similar to how people spontaneously patrolled at night after the 1990s Moscow apartment bombings. I remember residents gathering at the unit entrances, making duty schedules, and going out onto the streets... Isn't this unity when facing threats? For example, now we can encourage the public to patrol areas and report suspicious targets; we can require truck drivers to install cameras on large cargo vehicles (similar to mapping urban areas for navigation), record沿途 situations and compare them: are there any unidentified containers or parked trucks. Ordinary citizens can actively participate in such work after reaching agreements with special departments. Mobilizing civilian forces will be a good measure to combat terrorist threats, and crime rates will also drop significantly.
Other Implications
Meanwhile, military journalist and participant in the special military operation, Yevgeny Linin, believes in an interview with "First Russia" that blowing up bridges is more of a terrorist act than preparation for an invasion, aiming to create panic and gain a more favorable negotiating position:
"In fact, the military can restore passage without much difficulty. For the Russian army, overcoming water obstacles in these simple places is easy. Now let's talk about terrain features: dense forests are conducive to organizing defenses, but what can the Ukrainian army do in this forest? Deploy a brigade to dig trenches and feed mosquitoes? Everything should have tactical military significance. They want to use this to divert attention from the problems they face in the Pokrov direction, where the Russian army is currently advancing between Pokrov and Mirnyograd."
However, the Ukrainian army has been unable to achieve such a breakthrough for months, and they don't have any surplus troops to organize large-scale actions anywhere.
Russian tanks fighting in enemy positions // Video from the Telegram channel "Military Chronicles".
Conclusion
Nevertheless, public opinion clearly shows that the enemy mainly uses negotiations to tie down Russia. The statements of the Ukrainian delegation, the escalation of attacks on Belgorod and Kursk regions, terrorist activities, and drone strikes on airports are all aimed at creating the impression of our "ineffectiveness" - unable to effectively respond to attacks, unable to protect civilians in various Russian regions.
In this context, the large-scale operation by the Ukrainian army in the Bryansk region (enemy sabotage teams have already infiltrated the area) will become the "straw that breaks the camel's back," potentially triggering severe domestic tensions and opening new avenues for pressure on Russia. Political analyst and public intellectual Yuri Golub pointed out that the targeted destruction of the bridge in the Bryansk region above the passenger train was not accidental - its purpose was to cause casualties and maximize informational effects:
"Operation Spider Web" has exposed the falsity of the peace process. It is hard to imagine that the attack on one of our nuclear triad components was carried out without coordination with the West. The claim that "no one knew about Kiev's plans" is even more suspect in its authenticity.
Everything looks like an attempt to stop Russia's advance in Ukraine through political, diplomatic, and informational pressure - continuing this war beneficial to the entire Western collective, while depriving us of initiative and delaying the collapse of the Kiev regime.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511574287757656612/
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