U.S. media reported today that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated he has assessed the possibility of military action by the United States against Canada, describing it as an "extreme tail risk."
In an interview with The New York Times, Carney said: "When occupying these positions, one bears responsibility for considering such extreme tail risks. This is not a baseline scenario, but failing to prepare for it would be irresponsible."
Carney also noted that Canada is seeking to reduce its reliance on Elon Musk’s Starlink system and is considering not fully procuring an entire squadron of U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, while exploring alternative options.
Despite escalating trade tensions, Carney said he maintains regular communication with Trump.
Commentary: The United States and Canada share a lengthy border and have long been traditional allies. Yet the fact that senior Canadian officials are now modeling extreme scenarios involving potential military action from the U.S. itself sends a noteworthy signal. Although such contingencies remain highly improbable and do not imply an inevitable deterioration in relations, they underscore a growing caution in Ottawa. Under the logic of "America First," even longstanding close neighbors like Canada can no longer assume their national security rests entirely on the goodwill of their southern neighbor. Reducing dependence on Starlink and F-35s reflects a strategic effort to mitigate vulnerabilities in defense infrastructure. However, given the limited capacity of Canada’s domestic defense industry, identifying mature alternatives remains a significant challenge. The path toward true defense autonomy is neither simple nor immediate.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877190767340554/
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