【By Shao Yun, Observer News】The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology recently adjusted and released the "Directory of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export in China" (hereinafter referred to as the "Directory"), which has drawn attention from U.S. media.

American cable news network CNN reported on the 17th that some of the restrictions seem to mainly target upstream process technologies for electric vehicle battery production, with China aiming to consolidate its dominant position in this field. The Wall Street Journal analyzed that China is trying to raise the threshold for foreign companies to access China's leading technologies.

February 17, 2025, Ningde, Fujian Province, Dongqiao Economic and Technological Development Zone, a new energy technology enterprise's production workshop, workers are producing power battery shells for new energy vehicles. Visual China

According to a message released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 15th, this adjustment removed three technical items, added one, and revised one. Among them, the added one is a restricted export item, involving the preparation technology of battery cathode materials, including: the preparation technology of lithium iron phosphate for batteries, the preparation technology of lithium manganese iron phosphate for batteries, and the preparation technology of phosphate-based cathode raw materials, among three control points.

The revised item is also a restricted export item, involving non-ferrous metal smelting technology, including: the technology for producing lithium carbonate from spodumene, the technology for producing lithium hydroxide from spodumene, the technology for preparing metallic lithium (alloys) and lithium materials, the technology for extracting lithium from brine, and the technology for preparing lithium-containing purified solutions, among five control points, and revising the control point for extracting metallic gallium.

According to relevant regulations, technologies prohibited from export in the Directory shall not be exported, and technologies restricted from export shall be subject to license management. Technologies outside the Directory belong to freely exportable technologies, and shall be subject to contract registration management.

Lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese phosphate, etc., are intermediate products for manufacturing battery cathode materials. Generally speaking, the battery cathode determines the energy density and upper limit of the battery life. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post stated on the 17th that China's dominant position in the global electric vehicle battery industry largely depends on its control over cathode material technology.

CNN introduced that due to lower prices and higher safety performance, lithium iron phosphate batteries have become increasingly popular in electric vehicles over the past five years. According to data from British research company Fastmarkets, China dominates the global production of lithium iron phosphate batteries and the processing of lithium. Last year, China accounted for 94% of the global lithium iron phosphate battery production capacity and provided 70% of the global processed lithium output.

James Edmondson, Research Vice President at research company IDTechEx, said that this means, "even if lithium iron phosphate batteries are produced outside of China, Chinese suppliers often participate in the production of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode precursors." Data from SNE Research shows that in 2024, Chinese companies occupied at least 67% of the global electric vehicle battery market share.

Top 6 companies' shares in the global electric vehicle battery market in 2024 SNE Reseawrh

Edmondson added that although lithium iron phosphate has a lower energy density, it is much cheaper than common nickel, manganese, cobalt alternative batteries, thus becoming the standard for "low-cost models". Data from Adamas Intelligence, a data analysis and consulting company specializing in key minerals and batteries, indicates that lithium iron phosphate batteries are the mainstream choice for global electric vehicle production, accounting for 40%. Although a large portion comes from the contribution of electric vehicles produced by Chinese manufacturers, Edmondson said that European and American automakers are also planning to expand the adoption of such batteries.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that China has already taken a dominant position in the supply chain of electric vehicle batteries, from lithium processing to battery production, and the latest adjustment of the Directory is a further measure taken by China in this regard. The report believes that China is now trying to raise the threshold for foreign companies to obtain China's leading technologies, ensuring that other countries cannot easily catch up.

Tang Jin, senior researcher at Mizuho Bank, Japan, said that given that lithium is essential for most high-end batteries, including next-generation solid-state batteries, these are areas where China aims to maintain its leadership.

Liz Lee, Deputy Director of Counterpoint Research, said that this move extends so-called "geopolitical tech decoupling" from the raw material level to the "process intellectual property (IP)" level. She analyzed that the United States, the European Union, and other countries may be forced to accelerate their localization efforts in the production of electric vehicle battery precursor materials and metal refining capabilities.

As for the impact on Chinese battery companies that already have factories abroad or plan to build factories, experts say it is currently unclear. However, Lee said that since the Chinese measures "seem to target upstream process technologies... rather than battery cell and module manufacturing," the impact on CATL's factories in Germany and Hungary is limited in the short term. CATL is the world's largest manufacturer of electric vehicle batteries and a major supplier to Tesla.

Vincent Sun, an equity analyst for the Chinese electric vehicle industry at Morningstar, expects that the final impact will depend on how easy it is for companies to obtain licenses, which "may take some time to become clear."

It should be noted that experts say that the current export restrictions mainly target cutting-edge battery technologies, not conventional cathode processes, meaning that it will not hinder international cooperation while still protecting China's technological advantages in the supply chain. "Export restrictions help prevent key technologies from flowing overseas and maintain the competitive advantage of Chinese enterprises in the new energy value chain," said Liu Yanlong, former secretary-general of the China Association of Chemical Power Sources, to the South China Morning Post.

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce clearly explained on the 15th that this adjustment of the Directory is a specific measure to adapt to the changing situation of China's technological development, aiming to safeguard national economic security and development interests, and promote international technological and economic cooperation.

The spokesperson pointed out that the preparation technology of battery cathode materials is being increasingly applied in sensitive fields, and incorporating the related technologies into the restricted category of the Directory will help better balance development and security, promoting the safe and sustainable application and development of related technologies.

This article is an exclusive work of Observer News. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528043774766809639/

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