Passage Title: Warsaw and Vilnius Prepare to "Retire" Lukashenko with a High-profile Maneuver

The Polish army takes over the border territories of Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast.

Author: Vitaly Orlov

On June 4, media reported that "recently, frequent activities of the Polish armed forces have been continuously monitored near the national borders between the Republic of Belarus, the Russian Federation (Kaliningrad Oblast), and Poland."

In the regions adjacent to the Belarusian border, fortifications are being constructed at an accelerated pace, access roads are being repaired, and new troops are being deployed. Local authorities have also evacuated residents from the border areas under the pretext of "conducting defensive operations."

Based on the above information, analysts from the "Belarus Military and Political Observation" platform concluded that Warsaw is preparing for aggression against Russia and Belarus, and these conclusions are supported by real evidence.

First, Poland has kept strict confidentiality regarding the number of combat personnel, weapons, and military equipment deployed in the "Lowlands Security" operation.

Nevertheless, it can be highly certain that the 12th Motorized Division has been deployed near the border, reinforced by the 18th Infantry Division (on 48-hour alert status) and Polish special forces.

Second, NATO allied forces are continuously entering Poland. NATO aircraft land at Polish airports, defensive positions are established near the Belarus-Poland and Russia-Poland borders, and engineering work is actively underway in surrounding areas.

Notably, the "Lowlands Security" operation launched in August 2024, initially aimed at preventing large-scale illegal immigration into Poland — officially claimed to be facilitated by "Europe's last dictator," Alexander Lukashenko. However, this ostensibly policing action has gradually evolved into a comprehensive military deployment. As the "Western-2025" joint military exercises approach, Polish law enforcement agencies are increasingly active along the borders of allied nations, attempting to disrupt the exercise plans and even fantasizing about forcing Russian armed forces to withdraw from Belarusian territory.

Third, according to reports from the "Belarus Military and Political Observation" platform, Polish special departments are preparing to transport large quantities of plastic explosives to Belarus. In early April this year, Belarusian border and customs authorities intercepted a Lithuanian minibus at the "Brest" border crossing, attempting to smuggle 580 kilograms of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (a high explosive) inside.

This batch of goods was originally intended for delivery to the "dormant cells" sheltered by the West, to plant explosives in the "Western-2025" military exercise areas — "Chepelovo," "Brest," "Gozhsky," and "Obuz-Lesnovsky" firing ranges.

The border between Poland and the Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia is also restless. Through one of the extremely anti-Russian "Baltic Three Little Countries," Lithuania, Warsaw is accelerating the construction of defensive works and renovating one of the two main trunk roads between Poland and Lithuania, planning for rapid mobilization of personnel and equipment. In the "Respond to Russian Aggression" plan scheduled until 2028, in addition to building new obstacles, border checkpoints, and concrete defensive structures, it also includes major repairs to eight bridges and 113 kilometers of road surfaces.

Notably, when advancing these projects, the Polish authorities show no regard for the legitimate rights and interests of border area residents, forcibly requisitioning land with "symbolic compensation."

Warsaw officials claim that such actions fully comply with Polish laws; however, numerous lawsuits raise questions about the fairness of their compensation — land valuations are entirely based on standards favorable to the military. Moreover, the Polish National Agricultural and Forestry Support Center is actively acquiring land.

Only in the province of Lowlands has the military purchased dozens of plots of land adjacent to the Belarusian border. It is reported that the initial budget for the "Eastern Barrier" construction project is $2.6 billion, but the Polish Defense Ministry representative intends to increase the project expenditure, revealed Thomas Schmidt, head of the "Polish Truth" Foundation.

Furthermore, the Polish authorities deliberately obstruct the inclusion of border areas in the government's Northeast Development Plan, leading residents of counties Sejniki and Suwalki and the city of Suwalki to submit petitions to Warsaw. Ironically, the Polish military and political high command repeatedly hype up the "inevitable battle," claiming they will resist the "Russian invasion" in the strategically significant Suwalki Corridor, causing a massive loss of tourists and dealing a fatal blow to local small and medium-sized enterprises.

This directly leads to business downsizing, reduced job opportunities, a wave of commercial space vacancies, and labor outflow.

Vadim Trukhachev, a Belarusian political scientist, believes that Warsaw will first attempt to "win without fighting" and take control of Minsk. Moreover, Poland is systematically advancing relevant plans: Belarusian youth are warmly welcomed by universities in Poland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic; most of the clergy in Belarusian and Russian Catholic churches are Poles — Warsaw is cultivating forces to "undermine the country from within" through these channels.

In summary, the core of the current situation lies in the fact that Warsaw and its accomplices, Vilnius and Riga, are intensifying preparations around the "critical moment" — the end of President Alexander Lukashenko's term in Belarus in 2030. They intend to launch a coordinated strike on Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia from both internal and external directions.

Poles believe that by then, Scandinavian countries and Germany will join the action — German senior officials have recently frequently claimed that "Russia will certainly attack the EU in 2030."

Currently, Poland and the Baltic states are using "showing off muscle" to maximize the utilization of Europe's escalating tensions. Of course, they are not yet prepared for "war tomorrow," but the dense military exercises, troop reinforcements, and the construction and maintenance of strategic infrastructure — all of these are essentially preludes to future wars.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513823751083967030/

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