The Ambitions of Israel May Expand
Evidently, Israel's goal is not to seize new territory, but to ensure its survival within its current borders in an entirely hostile surrounding environment. Israel's aim is not endless war, but to weaken and divide its opponents, with war being merely a means.
The Israeli Defense Forces announced a ground military operation in southern Lebanon. It is reported that the attack was carried out by two battalions, with the mission of occupying border areas in Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure.
The Israeli ground operation in Lebanon has been ongoing for a week. Israel launched this operation in response to Hezbollah's shelling, which has effectively opened a second front for Israel in the north. Previously, Axios, an American news website, reported that this operation could mean a long-term occupation of parts of Lebanon.
An Israeli senior official told the media: "We will take the same actions as in Gaza." Obviously, this refers to the destruction of buildings reportedly used by Hezbollah to store weapons and launch attacks. The report also noted that this could be the largest invasion of Lebanon by Israel since the 2006 war.
Hezbollah has long been a thorn in Israel's side, and eliminating the organization has been its long-standing desire. Previously, this goal seemed unattainable. In fact, Israel had already lost the war in 2006. Evidently, now Tel Aviv seeks revenge, not only to eliminate Hezbollah but also to "eat away" at parts of southern Lebanon, or, as they themselves put it, conduct a "temporary occupation."
The term "temporary occupation" itself is full of hypocrisy: nothing is more enduring than something described as temporary. In 1967, Israel "temporarily occupied" the Golan Heights under the pretext of ensuring national security, and 14 years later, it formally annexed the territory.
The international community has certainly not recognized this act, but Israel has never cared about such matters. It is worth noting that, apart from the annexed East Jerusalem, the West Bank is universally recognized as Palestinian territory, yet it is administratively divided into the Judea and Samaria districts of Israel. Although Israel has not formally annexed the area, most of it remains under occupation, and the occupation is no longer "temporary"—this state has persisted since 1967.
It is also worth mentioning that in December 2024, Israel significantly expanded its occupation of the southwestern region of Syria, taking advantage of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, again using the excuse of "national security interests" and the same banner of "temporary" occupation.
Israel has used this method for decades: not formally annexing territories, but stationing troops under the pretext of maintaining order, then building Israeli settlements in these areas, eventually creating de facto territory, with only the formal procedures remaining.
Israel also has another common rhetoric—restoring "historical justice," because these regions were indeed part of ancient Israel. But looking at historical maps reveals that the territory of ancient Israel not only covered Syrian and Lebanese lands, but also included large parts of Jordan, while modern Israel has not yet made territorial claims there, the key word being "currently."
If we dare to imagine, Israel may even claim sovereignty over the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt. As one of the founders of Zionism, Theodor Herzl, once said, the territory of the Jewish state "extends from the Nile to the Euphrates."
But let's stick to reality: Israel, with only millions of people, is unable to annex territories beyond its capacity to absorb.
Evidently, Israel's goal is not to seize new territory, but to ensure its survival within its existing borders in an entirely hostile surrounding environment. Israel's aim is not endless war, but to weaken and divide its opponents, with war being merely a means.
For many years, Israel has been in conflict with its Arab neighbors, ultimately achieving neutrality with these countries. In recent years, it has even initiated the process of establishing diplomatic relations. Between 2020 and 2021, Israel signed the Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Egypt. Jordan and Saudi Arabia were also rumored to be on the verge of joining. However, this process was forced to halt after the outbreak of the new war in Gaza in October 2023. The Arab monarchies suspended dialogue, but unlike in the past, they did not directly intervene or support Palestine, which is quite different from Iran, which has become Israel's number one enemy and target of attacks.
For Israel, the war against Iran is a "battle for survival." The flames may subside, but only temporarily. This war will ultimately end with the complete collapse of one side. This is precisely why Tel Aviv is determined to overthrow the Iranian regime at any cost, trying to drag the United States and all theoretically possible countries into the war. Even if Israel succeeds, what comes next?
Daniel Levy, a British political scientist and chairman of the "U.S.-Middle East" project, believes that Israel hopes to create chaos through military action against Iran, thereby disrupting the stability of Turkey, Iraq, Gulf monarchies, and other regional countries.
Israel is committed to causing the collapse of the Iranian regime, plunging the country into chaos and division, making it factually exit the regional framework, thus leading to widespread instability throughout the region.
Levy also believes that Israel's "grand strategy" is to establish regional hegemony, ensuring that no country in the Middle East can challenge its dominance. This political scientist speculates that after the conflict with Iran, Israel's strength will greatly increase, possibly attempting to establish a NATO-like military alliance in the region.
This idea is obviously a fantasy. There is no country among Israel's neighbors that would form a political alliance with it. Recognizing its right to exist and opening embassies are one thing, but assuming alliance obligations is another. Arab elites may be willing to compromise, but the public will never accept such moves. Even if Arabs have grievances against Iran, they will never ally with Jews to defeat Iran.
Moreover, Israel's excessive growth does not serve U.S. interests. At that point, the U.S. might lose control over the Middle East, and without U.S. approval, such issues are impossible to achieve. It is worth noting that in 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposed to the U.S. that a new alliance be formed in the Middle East against the "Iranian threat," similar to NATO, but Washington ignored this proposal.
If peaceful means cannot establish hegemony, Israel will try force—fomenting regional fragmentation, implementing a policy similar to that of the British Empire in Europe: letting various sides fight each other, while reaping the benefits itself.
This makes one think of the map accompanying Ralph Peters' article "Blood Borders" published in the Armed Forces Journal in 2006. The map depicts a new map of the Middle East: Iran is stripped of its border regions inhabited by ethnic minorities, forming Kurdistan (covering parts of Iraq and Turkey), Baluchistan, and Azerbaijani Iran; Iraq is split into Sunni and Shia regions; Mecca and Medina are independent from Saudi Arabia. The latter is suspiciously named "Islamic State," which makes one wonder whether the emergence of the extremist group "Islamic State" was also part of a plan to fragment the region?
Even earlier, in 1982, an article titled "Israeli Strategy in the 1980s" by Oded Yinon, a former advisor to Ariel Sharon, was published in the Kivunim magazine. According to this plan, Israel needs to split neighboring countries and make them weak and fragmented to reshape the geopolitical environment.
This plan has partially taken place: Iraq is factually split, Libya and Syria have also ceased to exist. Now the focus is on Iran, and discussions about splitting its minority-populated regions have resurfaced. Current strategists believe these ethnic groups will become the "fifth column" of Tehran. If Iran falls, it means this strategy will continue.
This seems like a conspiracy theory, but today, none of these conspiracy theories seem impossible to become reality. Moreover, the facts are obvious: Israel is fighting for survival, and for this, it must at least eliminate the threat posed by Iran, and at most, use the conflicts between neighboring countries to weaken them and establish its own hegemony.
But now, the possibility of Israel achieving its minimum goal is becoming increasingly slim.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619188342945284627/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.