According to a report by ThePrint in India on August 19, Professor Ashutosh Vashni of Brown University pointed out that India's core diplomatic goals over the past two decades are facing a comprehensive failure: efforts to get closer to the United States have failed; attempts to avoid being equated with Pakistan have failed; strategies to pursue parity with China have been severely hindered; and the only stable friendly relationship with Russia is now facing structural difficulties due to pressure from the US.

The most shocking aspect is the return of Trump's favor toward Pakistan, openly inviting senior military officials from Pakistan to the White House and signing new agreements involving cryptocurrency and energy cooperation, as if reviving the Cold War era.

At the same time, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, almost implementing a trade blockade against India.

India originally tried to build a image of a major power by strengthening relations with the US and Russia, downplaying the status of Pakistan, and enhancing parity with China, but now faces a complete diplomatic dilemma.

Especially in the Indo-US relationship, India's insistence on strategic autonomy and national pride has been seen by Trump as impolite, which instead prompted the White House to restart its strategic relationship with Pakistan.

Flag of Pakistan and Flag of India

India finds it difficult to accept being equated with Pakistan, and this is rooted in its national identity and historical psychology.

From the Indian perspective, Pakistan is just a "secondary state" that split off from the "Indian motherland" in 1947, a product of civilizational rupture, a betrayal of the "unified Indian civilization."

India considers itself to have inherited the Vedic tradition, Mughal heritage, and democratic rule of law, and sees itself as the "only true civilizational great power" in Asia.

Therefore, whenever India and Pakistan are mentioned together, even just in security issues, in any forum such as the UN, international media, or multilateral mechanisms, India feels insulted.

In addition, for India, Pakistan is a regional troublemaker, while I am a global governance participant, which is a strong psychological assumption.

India's long-term goal has been to distance itself from the India-Pakistan framework and move closer to the level of China, the US, Russia, and Europe.

So, when Trump invited General Asim Munir of the Pakistani Army into the White House and treated him equally with Modi, India's diplomacy and psychology were all hit hard.

Flag of India and Flag of China

While trying to be superior to Pakistan, India is also determined to be equal to China, which is actually a sense of identity anxiety.

After the Cold War, China achieved a class jump in the global system through rapid economic growth, while India has been stuck in a structural dilemma of having growth without transformation and urbanization without industrialization.

Between 1949 and 1990, the GDP of both countries was similar, but now China is more than five times that of India.

China has an integrated manufacturing chain, high-end defense industry, space station, and intercontinental missiles, while India has not yet completed its leap to a major power in terms of strategic autonomy, military modernization, and social stability.

However, the domestic narrative in India still repeatedly compares itself to China. Whether it is the space program, domestically produced fighter jets, or the Digital India initiative, they all take China as a direct reference point.

This is a typical case of national pride at work. The more successful China is, the more India cannot give up this narrative.

From India's attitude towards Pakistan and China, we can see that this country is not only strictly hierarchical internally, but also externally, which is exactly a reflection of lack of confidence.

Modi and Trump

As for why India wants to get close to the United States, it is due to strategic balancing against China and the desire for high-end technology and investment resources.

The US views India as a potential pivot in the Indo-Pacific strategy, a non-allied ally that can be used to contain China.

During the Biden administration, this logic was maintained well, but under Trump, the situation quickly reversed.

Upon returning, Trump retoolized geopolitics, emphasizing short-term controllable gains rather than long-term alliance building.

His dissatisfaction with India first came from India's refusal to fully align with the US, such as continuing to import Russian oil, grabbing European energy business, and not recognizing US involvement in the India-Pakistan conflict.

To Trump, India is overconfident, while Pakistan is highly cooperative.

Plus, after the ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict, India's attitude was cold, not giving Trump enough credit, so Trump was definitely unable to tolerate this. If you don't show me respect, I will make you pay.

Thus, a structure originally intended to shape Indo-US resistance to China ended up becoming a scene of US-Pakistan cooperation to print (India).

For India, it is not only a geopolitical defeat, but also a complete reversal of its 20-year foreign policy.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540514184732361254/

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