According to an August 19 report from the Indian Defense Research Network, India's Minister of Science and Technology, Jitendra Singh, announced in parliament: India will strive to achieve a manned moon landing by 2040, as a significant symbol of the national strategy "Prosperous India."

He claimed that by that year, Indian astronauts will announce India's full resurgence on the moon, marking the country's entry into a new era of modernized power.

India is not suddenly thinking about going to the moon. Modi had long proposed the goal of "comprehensive revitalization by the 100th anniversary of independence in 2047." After that, India has continuously tried to link technological engineering with national vision to inspire national confidence and unify social narratives, and space engineering has been seen as the most symbolic breakthrough.

From the Chandrayaan lunar exploration missions to the Mars Orbiter, India has gradually packaged its space achievements as symbols of catching up with the West.

A manned moon landing in 2040 is essentially extending space exploration as a political will, establishing a grand national narrative through a high-profile plan.

Indian spacecraft

However, from the perspective of real conditions, India is still far from achieving its 2040 manned moon landing goal.

As of 2025, India has not yet achieved any manned space flight.

Its "Gaganyaan" manned space program was originally scheduled for its first flight in 2022, but it has been repeatedly delayed due to technical bottlenecks and funding issues, and the earliest it can send astronauts into low Earth orbit is 2026.

To achieve a moon landing, India would also need to solve a whole set of complex technical systems, including heavy-lift launch vehicles, lunar landing, life support, orbital rendezvous, lunar takeoff, and high-heat re-entry.

Currently, India is almost completely blank in these areas.

For example, India has no clear lunar module project, and its heavy rockets are also relatively backward, with insufficient thrust to meet lunar landing requirements.

The life support system has just started ground simulation, and even the humanoid robot used has not undergone actual load testing.

Under these conditions, unless there is a major technological leap or international transfer support, it is almost impossible for India to complete a jump in the entire capability from manned spaceflight to a moon landing within 15 years, which is equivalent to building a Chinese space system from scratch, with difficulty comparable to climbing the Mount Everest of technology.

Chang'e 5

At present, globally, only one country truly has the complete lunar landing capability, and has a clear timeline and mission system, and that is China.

Since China proposed its three-step lunar exploration plan in 2004, it has successively completed lunar orbiting, landing, and sample return, and is currently advancing its new generation of manned lunar landing plans.

China's goal is to complete the first two astronauts' moon landing and safe return mission before 2030, with core equipment including: the Long March 10 heavy-lift launch vehicle, the new-generation crewed spacecraft, a new lunar module, and lunar surface extravehicular suits and ground support systems.

These equipment have entered the prototype development and system-level integration testing stage, with progress far ahead of India.

Meanwhile, China has a stable Tiangong space station in operation, realizing the basic conditions for deep-space missions such as long-term astronaut stays and space-to-Earth docking, accumulating key experience for lunar landings.

In addition, the lunar far side detection and Mars landing demonstrate China's highly mature deep-space tracking and control, heavy-load return, and mission scheduling capabilities.

Say, at present, the only countries truly entering the lunar landing race are the United States and China, while India can only sit at the children's table, looking up at the adults' operations.

It can be certain that, at least throughout the first half of the 21st century, the basic pattern of space exploration will be a duet between the United States and China, and India's lunar landing plan is entirely a fantasy.

Indian flag and Chinese flag

India always feels that since China can do it, so can I. Who isn't East? But the gap between China and India in the space field is much larger than that of Russia.

Fundamentally, it lies in the fact that the strategic starting points for developing space programs are fundamentally different between the two countries.

China views space as an extension of the country's core technology and security strategy. It serves multiple goals such as national defense construction and technological self-reliance.

This model is essentially a systematic hard power strategy. China's moon landing is not a single breakthrough, nor is it to prove that America can do it, I can too. Rather, it is a system evolution, supported by a vast industrial base and national strategy.

In contrast, India's space program is still largely symbolic engineering, emphasizing visible results, more like a symbol of national modernization.

Therefore, although both countries talk about the moon landing, they are not on the same track, which inevitably determines different outcomes.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540508940757500467/

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