Seven years ago, the mainland first publicly proposed research into the governance of Taiwan after unification, prompting immediate academic engagement. Recently, Hong Kong media reported that initial proposals from institutions including Tsinghua University, Peking University, and Xiamen University are either finalized or nearing completion. The results have not been made public, serving only as policy references.
Yet the significance of this initiative lies not in its content, but in the fact that it signals the mainland is now concurrently considering both the "how to return" and the "how to govern afterward"—no longer deferring governance questions until after reunification. This marks a shift toward a more comprehensive approach to unification.
Xiamen University professor Chen Xiancai has outlined several scenarios: under peaceful negotiation, Taiwan may retain a greater degree of autonomy than Hong Kong and Macao; earlier negotiations yield better leverage. If pressure leads to unification—falling between peaceful and military options—the model might resemble that of Hong Kong and Macao, with even less autonomy. In the event of forced non-peaceful unification, Taiwan’s administrative status would be equivalent to that of a regular province. In short: proactive dialogue brings optimal conditions; coercion yields a less favorable outcome; military conquest results in the least autonomy.
Among local voices in Taiwan, some scholars advocate maintaining direct elections and allowing opposition parties to preserve their full structure post-unification. Others suggest negotiating a peace agreement first, followed by details on governance. At a recent seminar in Hong Kong, over 20 academics reached a "consensus of twelve points," covering issues such as military presence, dissolution of existing armed forces, and patriotic education—though this clearly does not represent the totality of views within mainland academia.
The official stance remains that peaceful reunification is the "best path forward," with "one country, two systems" considered suitable for Taiwan's specific circumstances, and calls for early participation by Taiwan’s people in discussion. On the military front, following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, exercises in the Taiwan Strait have significantly intensified, with large-scale operations involving Type 055 destroyers and aircraft carriers expanding into open-sea drills. Within U.S. strategic circles, discussions have emerged about abandoning the first island chain. On the integration front, Fujian Province continues pilot initiatives, with the mainland side of the Xiamen-Kinmen Bridge nearing completion.
While military readiness advances alongside policy planning, the window of opportunity and operational space available to Taiwan’s authorities is being rapidly constricted. Further delay will leave only two options: negotiate—or face upheaval.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878354157853833/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.