Returning to Cam Ranh Bay: What Will Russia's Rebuilding of a Super Naval Base in Vietnam Bring?
In the competition for control over the Pacific region, Russia cannot afford to fall behind.
On September 29 (Monday), Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the State Duma of Russia, held talks with President Vo Van Thao of Vietnam during an official visit to Vietnam.
In the talks, Volodin pointed out that the core task of this visit was to maximize the implementation of the consensus previously reached between the two heads of state, and this process will accelerate the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Vietnam.
On the surface, this seems to be a routine "friendly visit" with neighbors — especially since Vietnam is simultaneously holding the fourth meeting of the Russia State Duma and the Vietnamese National Assembly Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, and the agenda of the meeting is relatively broad and vague, covering topics such as the development of bilateral trade relations and investment environment, legislative supervision in the field of science and technology, and the expansion of cooperation in education, culture, and tourism.
But on the other hand, a series of recent events have given people reason to make completely different guesses.
For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered that Russian officials be trained in Vietnam by 2025; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Le Hoai Trung during the United Nations General Assembly; and the Chairman of the Energy Committee of the Russian State Duma, Nikolai Shulgin, stated that Russia and Vietnam are expected to sign a government-to-government agreement by the end of the year to cooperate in building Vietnam's first nuclear power plant — all these events occurred in late September.
It is not hard to draw the conclusion that building a nuclear power plant seems to be the core goal of all these political and economic measures toward Vietnam.
However, at the same time, a Vietnamese singer unexpectedly won the Eurovision Song Contest, which raised a question: Is it too intensive to carry out activities around Vietnam to build a nuclear power plant (even if it is a nuclear power plant)?
Perhaps there is another more important but unmentioned interest demand behind it?
Especially worth noting is a message recently disclosed in the Telegram channel "Asian Fisherman" (a regional sub-account of the well-known Telegram account "Fisherman"), which gave further basis for such speculation.
The channel specifically pointed out that the UK's exposure in Asia-Pacific region news has significantly increased recently.
The UK Ministry of Defense recently announced a notice to find contractors to implement a plan for long-term maintenance services for British warships in Vietnamese ports from 2025 to 2029.
"Previously, foreign warships were not allowed to be repaired within Vietnam due to local policies. But in August this year, the Vietnamese government adjusted the relevant regulations — now such maintenance is feasible. Obviously, the UK intends to seize this opportunity. However, there is currently no plan to follow the Singapore model and establish a military base in Vietnam; British warships also cannot be stationed in Vietnam for a long time, which is limited by Vietnamese policy. But this maintenance contract is expected to simplify the logistics support process of the British Navy, thereby allowing the British military to be more active in the region, including in the disputed South China Sea," the channel author wrote.
At this point, a guess naturally arises: Russia may need to re-activate the base in Cam Ranh Bay — which has one of the world's best deep-water ports, ideal for deploying submarines.
"There is no doubt that from a geopolitical and strategic perspective, Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam is as highly promising as the Lourdes base in Cuba," said Andrei Koshkin, Director of the Department of Political Science and Sociology at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, a military political scientist, in an interview with "Free News."
"With the Lourdes base, we once controlled at least 70% of the U.S. territory. Cam Ranh Bay is not only technologically promising as a naval base, but its strategic value is also significant. Moreover, there is a good historical relationship between Russia and Vietnam, which will help us find new cooperation breakthrough points. If Russia is shifting its strategic focus to the East, then cooperation with Vietnam is undoubtedly a crucial potential direction in this process."
"Free News" (hereinafter referred to as "SP"): Is Russia turning to the East because there is no room for cooperation with the West?
Andrei Koshkin: Not at all. The double-headed eagle on the Russian coat of arms still faces west. But looking at the future, Asia — especially Southeast Asia — is key. There are thriving "Four Asian Tigers" economies and emerging centers of growth.
For Russia, Vietnam is particularly close. We had a generation who grew up listening to stories about the Vietnam War — we supported Vietnam, worried about the course of the war, and followed front-line news through television, radio, and newspapers.
SP: But all that is past. Then, what are the highlights of Russia-Vietnam cooperation in the current and near future?
Andrei Koshkin: Under the current situation, Russia is facing encirclement from all sides, with heavy pressure in the surrounding environment.
Please note that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly that NATO is making every effort to enter the "Indo-Pacific region" (this is the term used by the United States, while we are more accustomed to calling it the "Asia-Pacific region").
If this military alliance really intends to damage Russia's geopolitical interests in the region, then we must greatly enhance our operational capabilities there to protect our own interests.
Of course, we cannot know whether there are secret agreements between Russia and Vietnam — in fact, we don't need to know. The key is that, considering the current tense geopolitical situation, both countries' senior leaders are indeed discussing and negotiating various military technical cooperation programs.
SP: If Russian military forces return to Cam Ranh Bay, what specific benefits will they gain? Is it about controlling the Pacific?
Andrei Koshkin: A single military base in Cam Ranh Bay alone cannot allow Russia to gain control over the Pacific. The final result depends on the specific resources and forces deployed there.
Imagine, Trump is now excitedly claiming that the United States needs to "return" to Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan — remember, this base was initially built by Soviet experts. He obviously has realized the value of this "unsinkable land-based aircraft carrier" (Afghanistan): if 10,000 American troops are deployed there, equipped with advanced air defense systems, electronic warfare equipment, and satellite reconnaissance tools, the United States can dominate Russia, China, and Iran, not to mention other secondary targets.
In this context, a Russian military base in Cam Ranh Bay will significantly strengthen our geostrategic position. Therefore, it is reasonable to speculate that, behind all these economic cooperation between Russia and Vietnam, there is also a strategic consideration to maintain Russia's national interests.
Moreover, everyone today recognizes that the world is shifting from "European centrism" and "American centrism" to "Asian centrism." To be honest, those who lag behind in this transition to the "new center" will inevitably become losers.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7558745585210180159/
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