Shōchi Hayami's approval rating has dropped significantly, and this high-stakes gamble is now facing huge uncertainties? Japanese business circles have warned that Japan cannot afford to be separated from China, which could become a fatal weakness for the Shōchi administration?

Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Shōchi Hayami launched a "blitz," aiming to use her current high approval rating to gain a majority in the Diet, thus starting a "political gamble."

Shōchi Hayami even announced that if this time the ruling coalition does not secure half the seats, she will resign as prime minister, and the prime minister would be Hata, Saito, or someone else.

It seems that Shōchi Hayami's seemingly tough words have already brought her many unnecessary troubles. The biggest reason is that Shōchi Hayami's approval rating has fallen much faster than expected.

According to a report by Kyodo News on January 26, Shōchi's cabinet approval rating has dropped to 63.1%, a decrease of 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a nearly 10% drop from its peak.

This sharp decline reveals the emptiness within Shōchi Hayami's administration. More worrying for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is that public opinion against dissolving the House of Representatives reached 47.3%, exceeding the 44.0% who supported it.

In terms of the crucial issue of the fiscal budget review timing, over 53% of respondents believe that "the budget bill should be prioritized," far higher than those who think "it is necessary for the election" at 26%.

The voting intention survey results are also not optimistic. Regarding proportional representation voting intentions, the LDP leads with 29.2%, but the new party "Center Reform Union" has reached 11.9%. In the small district voting intentions, 34.9% of voters have not yet decided, and the ruling party camp cannot guarantee an advantage.

Everyone clearly knows that Japan's economic difficulties have become the biggest weakness of Shōchi Hayami's government. 59.3% of respondents listed "measures against rising prices" as the most important issue when voting, followed by pension and social security, economic situation and employment, foreign affairs and national security.

In other words, if Shōchi Hayami fails to resolve domestic economic issues and foreign diplomatic problems, her ruling coalition is destined to be short-lived.

Facing the deteriorating economic situation, Shōchi Hayami has significantly increased defense spending, reaching about 9 trillion yen, a historical high. At the same time, to cover the fiscal deficit of 29.6 trillion yen, the Shōchi cabinet chose to issue new government bonds.

Japan has become one of the few countries with extremely high debt ratios. Some Japanese citizens pointed out that the Shōchi Hayami government is cutting medical and welfare budgets, diverting funds to military expansion, which is the worst Japanese regime since the end of World War II.

Notably, in terms of the economy, the Japanese business sector specifically mentioned China. According to Observer Network, on January 25, the Japan Tourism Agency recently released data showing that during October to December 2025, the amount spent by Chinese tourists on accommodation, shopping, etc., in Japan fell by 17.9% compared to the same period last year.

It should be noted that Chinese tourists were once the largest group of international tourists visiting Japan, accounting for about a quarter of all international tourists. Since Shōchi Hayami made the wrong remarks on Taiwan, the number of Chinese tourists has started to significantly decrease.

Due to the drastic fall in the exchange rate between the yen and the yuan, Japan theoretically should have become more attractive to Chinese tourists, but now the number of Chinese tourists traveling to Japan has drastically declined.

Japanese media and experts point out that Shōchi Hayami's various actions have already had an impact on multiple sectors of the Japanese economy, including retail, accommodation, and catering.

Representatives of the Japan-China Economic Association, Keidanren, and the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations requested visits to China multiple times in December last year, but have not yet received a response from China. The "three giants" of the Japanese business world pointed out that the early-year visit to China by the Japanese business community, which has lasted for over 50 years, may now face a disruption.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7599539873422393891/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.