New Canal is expected to pass through Thailand (Al Jazeera)
In an article published on the Russian Center website, writer Dmitry Nefyodov emphasized that China and Thailand have re-proposed the idea of building a canal connecting the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, and questioned whether Beijing has already overcome the dilemma of the Strait of Malacca.
The author mentioned at the beginning of the article the international conference held in Bangkok in early February titled "The Kra Canal and the Economic Prospects of the BRICS." He said that some Thai and Malaysian media reports stated that the intergovernmental memorandum of understanding signed between China and Thailand in May 2015 would be implemented in the mid-2030s. The memorandum stipulates the construction of a 100-kilometer-long canal in the Kra Isthmus in southern Thailand, possibly funded by China.
He pointed out that this project would bypass the Strait of Malacca, shortening the route between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific via the South China Sea by one-third.
Although the two governments later may have distanced themselves from the agreement due to opposition from regional players such as Singapore and India, the adjustment of maritime routes has become increasingly urgent due to disputes in the South China Sea waters and the poor safety levels of the Strait of Malacca (between Indonesia and West Malaysia) and the Sunda Strait (between Java and Sumatra).
The author pointed out that the project aligns with China's famous "Belt and Road" initiative and noted that the main participants at the aforementioned conference unanimously agreed that the political and economic demand for this project, which began in the mid-19th century, is continuously growing, and this waterway will strengthen China's political and economic relations with all South Asian countries, accelerate the future expansion of the BRICS group, and increase Thailand's revenue.
Malacca City, Malaysia, located on the banks of the Malacca River (Social Network)
Revolutionary Project
As Georgy Torolaya, Executive Director of the Russian National Committee for BRICS Research, pointed out: "The Kra Canal project could completely change maritime trade in the region, reduce transportation costs, and create new economic opportunities between regions." Other experts also expressed similar assessments.
The author explained that various proposals put forward by Thailand suggest constructing a waterway ranging from 95 to 160 kilometers long in the wider southern part of the Gulf of Thailand, including a parallel oil pipeline similar to those operating along the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal.
The Myanmar project has the shortest route, only 60 kilometers north of the isthmus, but does not include a parallel oil pipeline and only passes through the adjacent part of Thailand. It is not much cheaper than the Thai route because 90% of its route goes through the mangrove-covered mountainous area of Myanmar, while the Thai route passes through a series of coral reefs and small islands.
The author reviewed the long history of the idea of digging a canal across the relatively narrow isthmus between the Indian Ocean (Andaman Sea) and the Pacific (Gulf of Thailand), pointing out that discussions about this idea date back to the 17th century, and the project almost started in the 1890s by Japan. However, Siam (Thailand), Britain, and Australia agreed not to open a waterway across the Kra Isthmus to maintain the commercial dominance of Singapore and Calcutta (Bangladesh) under British control at the time.
In the 1930s, media began reporting information about Japan's intention to implement this old idea, i.e., to bypass the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) and the British bases in the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea basin. It is claimed that preliminary work began in the early 1940s with Thailand, but was stopped due to military and political events in the region.
Thailand's Concerns
The author pointed out that the Soviet Union and Myanmar had collaborated on developing such a project in the mid-1950s, but subsequent changes in the region's geopolitics, including increasing instability in Myanmar, hindered the implementation of the project. However, after Russia signed a Memorandum of Understanding on investment cooperation with Myanmar in February 2025, Myanmar might return to the spotlight, including the construction of a deep-sea transit port near the proposed canal route in the Myanmar scheme, after which Russia would obtain the right to use the port.
The author pointed out that if including supporting infrastructure such as oil pipelines, the initial investment costs for the three schemes of the canal project crossing Thailand are estimated to be no less than 23 billion US dollars. It is unlikely that China will participate in the operation of the canal, as at least 70% of the funding for these projects will come from Chinese government and commercial investments and loans.
Beijing and Bangkok have chosen the third canal scheme, which is the southernmost route in southern Thailand, near the border between Thailand and Malaysia. The route is approximately 95 kilometers long, with deep-water ports on both sides of the canal, mainly used for container cargo. The corridor has an annual throughput of 20 million standard containers.
The author pointed out that the vote held by the Thai House of Representatives in February 2022 produced negative results. Out of 317 members, only 121 supported the feasibility study of the project, while 143 opposed it.
In 2025, Bangkok authorities decided to support the 2.8 billion USD "Land Bridge" project backed by Washington, which is a land transport corridor connecting the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. The author believes that the project aims to achieve similar economic benefits without the political and environmental problems associated with building a canal, making it a more feasible and strategically balanced solution.
A Chinese fishing boat in the South China Sea (Al Jazeera)
Silk Road
The author reviewed the arguments of those opposing the construction of the canal. They pointed out that if built, it could cause national division, strengthen separatist movements in southern provinces, and exacerbate general concerns about the growing influence of the Eastern superpower in the Asia-Pacific region, which is triggered by current geopolitical confrontations.
On the contrary, as Elena Fomicheva, an expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out: "Local canal supporters in Thailand believe that it will make Thailand one of the world's largest transportation hubs. Lobby groups also strongly support this view, emphasizing its key advantages, such as reducing the sea route from Southeast Asia to Europe and Africa by more than 1,000 kilometers, shortening the sailing time of ships by 3 to 4 days, reducing fuel consumption, lowering shipping costs, and alleviating the pressure on the straits traveling back and forth in Southeast Asia."
Experts believe that from a broader regional context, the role of the Chinese factor in the project is very important, he explained: "China is willing to provide financing and can also offer engineering assistance and labor. Chinese banks are also willing to provide loans for the project to Thailand. If Thailand is unable to repay the debt, China is willing to lease the facility for 99 years, like the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. However, this situation would greatly enhance China's influence over Thailand and the transit routes in this vast region."
The author concluded the article by stating that Beijing has recently shown increasing interest in reviving the Thai canal project, which is part of the Maritime Silk Road and an important component of China's "Belt and Road" initiative.
With the expansion of global trade, the demand for efficient and safe maritime routes will inevitably increase. The planned canal will help shorten the route, avoid bottlenecks, reduce dependence on a single trade route (the Strait of Malacca), through which about 80% of China's oil imports pass.
Source: Russian media
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7529753354210132495/
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