US media: NVIDIA's market share in China will be hard to recover
US President Donald Trump relaxed export restrictions on Chinese chips. This pleased NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun, but caused dissatisfaction among many US pro-China hawkers in the political arena. The Trump administration gave the green light for NVIDIA H20 chips, and it is expected that this product will soon return to the Chinese market.
However, according to a report by CNBC, technology industry experts predict that this event will not trigger a buying frenzy in the market. The media cited a report from the global investment company Bernstein, which predicts that NVIDIA's share in the Chinese artificial intelligence chip market will drop from 66% in 2024 to 54% in 2025.
The decline in market share is partially due to difficulties in restoring chip supply, but more importantly, Chinese artificial intelligence chip manufacturers are rapidly capturing the booming domestic market. US export controls have created unique opportunities for Chinese AI chip manufacturers, allowing them to avoid direct competition with the world's most advanced products. Companies such as Huawei, Cambricon, and Haike are seeing a significant increase in their market influence. The share of localized solutions in the Chinese AI chip market is expected to grow from 17% in 2023 to 55% by 2027.
Bernstein's prediction is based on the assumption that US chip restrictions remain largely unchanged. This means that Chinese companies will continue to develop and provide cutting-edge chips, potentially reducing the demand for US outdated products.
Before the H20 ban was lifted, Huang Renxun actively lobbied to expand access to the Chinese market, claiming that export controls would weaken the United States' technological leadership. Although officials in the Trump administration argued that lifting the ban was related to trade negotiations, analysts also supported NVIDIA's core argument that export restrictions on chips should be eased to increase China's reliance on US technology. However, although expanding access to NVIDIA chips is good news for Chinese AI developers, the Chinese government has not slowed down its efforts to encourage companies to adopt domestic AI infrastructure. Recently, representatives from NVIDIA were summoned by the Cyberspace Administration of China, clearly signaling that the Chinese government will intervene in the local AI infrastructure market.
The Chinese government's move seems to be a response, to some extent, to a new US law requiring semiconductor companies like NVIDIA to embed security features in their chips. NVIDIA later stated that its chips do not have "backdoors" that allow external personnel to access or control them. However, CNBC concluded that this information undoubtedly affects the willingness of Chinese AI developers to purchase the new H20.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1839540267940868/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.