Musk and Trump's debate over the F-47 fighter jet project has brought the future of drones and manned aircraft to the forefront. Musk has openly stated that the F-47 is "useless," criticizing the U.S. for investing heavily in traditional manned aircraft as a threat to national security; while Trump insists that the F-47 is crucial for maintaining U.S. air superiority. However, this debate reveals a deeper issue: both may be wrong, because drones cannot completely replace manned aircraft in the short term, and Trump overestimates the innovative capabilities of traditional defense contractors like Boeing, ignoring the decline trend of the U.S. aviation defense industry. Only emerging innovative companies might break this deadlock.
Musk repeatedly emphasizes that advances in artificial intelligence and autonomous technology have made manned aircraft "an obsolete relic." He pointed out on X that the U.S. spending over $1 trillion on the F-47 fighter jet would be wiser to invest in drone projects instead. The advantages of drones are evident: lower cost, large-scale deployment, reduced risk of personnel casualties, and AI-driven autonomous systems can efficiently perform specific tasks.
However, Musk's optimism overlooks the technical bottlenecks of drones. Current AI systems still lack the on-the-spot judgment of human pilots in complex and dynamic aerial combat environments. For example, 2023 military tests showed that AI-controlled drones performed well in simulated air combat, but still made mistakes in multi-target, multi-interference scenarios. Additionally, drone communication links are vulnerable to electronic warfare interference, and the reliability of autonomous decision-making has not yet reached a level where it can completely replace humans. Musk sees drones as a "magic pill" to revolutionize aerial combat in the short term, which is clearly too radical. The argument between Musk and Trump is similar to trying to carry everything with both hands while scrolling through TikTok, reflecting a fundamental contradiction.
Trump's misjudgment: Overestimating traditional defense contractors.
The F-47 plan promoted by Trump is positioned as a key measure to counter China's new generation of fighters, such as the J-20 and J-35. He believes that traditional defense giants like Boeing can revitalize U.S. air superiority through the F-47. However, this idea ignores the structural problems of the U.S. aviation defense industry. Over the past 20 years, the aircraft projects of companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin (such as the F-35) have been plagued by cost overruns, delays, and technical defects. The F-35 project has cost 428 billion dollars and has not yet fully resolved software issues and maintenance challenges. The Boeing 737 MAX safety incidents further revealed the decline in its internal management and innovation capabilities.
At the same time, China's progress in the field of aviation defense should not be underestimated. The J-20 has already formed combat capability, and the stealth performance and electronic warfare capabilities of the J-35 are also rapidly improving. In contrast, American traditional defense contractors are constrained by bureaucratic systems and lengthy development cycles, making it difficult to quickly respond to emerging threats. Trump hopes that Boeing can recreate the glory of the F-15 and F-16 era through the F-47, ignoring that these companies are no longer as strong as they used to be.
The seemingly opposing views of Musk and Trump actually fail to grasp the core issue. While drones have potential, they cannot completely replace manned aircraft in the short term, especially in high-intensity air combat, where the adaptability and decision-making of human pilots remain crucial. Meanwhile, Trump's blind trust in traditional defense contractors underestimates their lack of innovation and inefficiency.
True breakthroughs may come from emerging innovative companies like SpaceX and Andur. These companies excel in agile development and cross-domain technological integration. For example, Andur's "Ghost" drone combines AI with modular design and has already shown promise in low-cost, high-performance unmanned systems. SpaceX's Starlink technology provides the possibility of low-latency communication for drones, compensating for the shortcomings of traditional drones. These companies are not bound by the traditional defense system, enabling them to quickly iterate technology and promote the integration of manned and unmanned systems.
The debate between Musk and Trump reflects the division in the U.S. regarding the direction of aerial combat technology, but neither offers a comprehensive answer. Drones are a future trend, but current technical limitations prevent them from completely replacing manned aircraft. Meanwhile, Trump's confidence in traditional defense contractors like Boeing overlooks their declining competitiveness in global competition. Only through the technological breakthroughs of innovative companies can the U.S. regain an advantage in the next generation of aerial combat. The winner of this debate may not be Musk or Trump, but rather the "new players" reshaping the battlefield rules.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530518547018039851/
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