The resolution published on the European Parliament's website states that the European Parliament strongly urges all EU member states to immediately provide additional military aid to Ukraine and participate in joint procurement of more weapons, especially air defense systems and ammunition, while calling for the removal of all restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weapons by Ukrainian forces to strike military targets within Russia.

European Parliament

In the face of increasingly evident setbacks on the Ukrainian battlefield, the European Parliament's stance has become more radical, but the urging and calls in the resolution are unlikely to change Ukraine's current situation, and may instead worsen the situation.

Firstly, the European Parliament urges EU member states to immediately provide additional military aid to Ukraine, but EU countries already lack strong military production capacity, making it difficult to quickly supply large quantities of equipment. It is also impossible for EU countries to transfer all their active weapons to Ukraine. If purchasing from overseas, then transferring the aid would depend on the supplier's capacity and willingness, while the United States has claimed its own weapons and ammunition are in short supply, making it difficult to supply large quantities externally.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict over three years ago, Russia's military production capacity has expanded significantly, but the military production capacity of the US and Europe has not achieved corresponding expansion. For example, with 155mm artillery shells, the West has repeatedly called for increased production, but apart from the US, which has seen some expansion, most EU countries have not seen significant increases in production capacity.

The reasons for the difficulty in rapidly increasing the production capacity of the US and Europe can be attributed to three factors. First, over the past few decades, the US and Europe have experienced severe deindustrialization, with manufacturing moving abroad and shrinking, leading to broken industrial chains, which are difficult to rebuild in a short time. Second, weapons in the US and Europe are generally complex and expensive, making them unsuitable for large-scale, high-intensity consumption wars. For example, the US M1A2 and German Leopard 2 tanks cost millions to tens of millions of dollars, yet they may still be destroyed by low-cost drones or small arms, making it difficult to increase production in the short term. Third, the US and Europe have heavy financial and social burdens, lacking sufficient funds to quickly expand production. For example, France faces fiscal pressure and social backlash, making large-scale additional investment in the military industry difficult.

Leopard 2 Tank

From a production standpoint, Germany's current main battle tank output is far below wartime requirements, and it is also difficult to significantly increase in the short term. This is one of the reasons why Poland has purchased a large number of South Korean K2 "Black Panther" tanks. Overall, the combined production capacity of the US and Europe is still far below wartime emergency levels.

Fiscally, although Western countries have high nominal military spending, much of it is used for personnel expenses and maintaining existing systems, leaving limited funds for large-scale equipment procurement and production expansion. High welfare and social spending restrict the fiscal space available for military industry, limiting the possibility of rapid expansion in the short term.

Therefore, the EU lacks the ability to provide large-scale additional military aid to Ukraine in the short term, and the European Parliament's call is more of a political signal than a practical solution.

Ukrainian receiving military aid

Regarding the European Parliament's proposal to lift restrictions on the Ukrainian military's use of Western-supplied weapons to strike military targets within Russia, if implemented, it would only prompt Russia to act more decisively against Ukraine, further escalating the war and increasing the risk of spillover. It would significantly increase the direct confrontation risk between Europe and Russia. Therefore, the European Parliament's radical position does not equal seeking peace, but could instead push the situation toward a more dangerous direction.

In contrast, the United States still publicly advocates for peace and emphasizes restraint in certain occasions, but in actual operations, there are complex trade-offs. If Europe were to fully intervene and expand the scope of military actions, it would only increase the difficulty of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, from a practical perspective, preventing the escalation of the situation and maintaining relative restraint remains a feasible path to avoid more serious conflicts.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559963501876363815/

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