[Text by Guancha Observer, Liu Chenghui]

The Philippines, which unilaterally escalated tensions in the South China Sea, has recently signaled a desire to ease the situation.

At an event held by the Philippine Chinese Business League on June 10, President Marcos called on business figures from the Philippines and China to promote bilateral relations, sparking speculation that he was softening his stance toward China.

A Philippine scholar noted that the Philippines' disputes with China have led to a plunge in foreign investments, causing Chinese investors to lose interest in the Philippines, and political figures are now feeling the consequences of distancing themselves from China.

However, some analysts pointed out that considering President Marcos' previous tough policies in the South China Sea, this shift is unlikely to yield substantial results in the short term. If the Philippines fails to break away from its dependence on the U.S. and develop an independent foreign policy, gestures toward China may just be symbolic, and China may not respond positively.

The Philippine Chinese Business League was established in 1954 and is the highest institution of Chinese businessmen in the Philippines. It is a non-profit limited company without shares.

During the swearing-in ceremony for newly elected officials of the organization, President Marcos urged business leaders to promote the Philippines as a "reliable economic partner" for China.

President Marcos said, "You have a unique advantage in deepening our international cooperation, especially with China. Closer ties mean better trade, greater investment, and deeper collaboration."

"Our story is not shaped solely by treaties or official documents but by continuous cooperation, such as rescue efforts during crises, educational programs, cultural exchanges, and economic cooperation."

Philippine President Marcos, file photo

Political and economic analyst Wilson Lee Flores, who also attended the event and is the honorary chairman of the Manila Anvil Business Club, said that President Marcos' remarks surprised the entrepreneurs present.

He said, "Just a few days ago, President Marcos was saying 'sweet words' to the Chinese ambassador in Manila. He was very friendly to the ambassador, and his speech carried a warm tone. He asked for help to strengthen relations with China, but this is not the main focus of the federation. It seems he is readjusting his policies."

"Although China is skeptical of countries that talk pretty but act inconsistently, I hope it's not the case here. But at least this is good news compared to negative comments and actions."

Ramon Beleno, head of the Political Science and History Department at Ateneo de Davao University, believes that President Marcos' adjustment in stance may be due to economic considerations. In the coming months, the Philippine government is expected to face an increasingly expanding budget deficit problem, which may further lower President Marcos' approval ratings.

According to the latest poll by market research firm OCTA, President Marcos' approval rating and trust level dropped to 60% and 59% respectively by April, compared to 65% and 64% at the end of 2024. In contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte's numbers rose from 49% and 48% to 58% and 56% respectively.

Statistics from the Philippine Statistics Authority show that foreign investment commitments in the Philippines fell dramatically by 82% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, plunging from 155.26 billion pesos to 2.799 billion pesos (1 RMB ≈ 7.76 PHP), mainly due to investor caution regarding both global and local environments.

Mr. Beleno emphasized that this situation is the result of the Philippine government adopting an adversarial policy toward China on the South China Sea issue, causing Chinese investors to lose interest in setting up factories in the Philippines.

"I think Philippine politicians are starting to feel the consequences of alienating China," he said. "From an investment perspective, this will have the most severe impact because China is one of our largest trading partners after the United States. This is why the president is reaching out to the Chinese community."

Mr. Beleno predicts that if the Chinese side hears President Marcos' call, it would not be surprising for China to propose conditions when the two countries return to the negotiating table.

Teddy Casiño, a former lawmaker from the opposition group "Bayan Muna," said that despite differences between the Philippines and China, their relationship should not be defined solely by maritime disputes.

"If the goal is to improve relations with China, these gestures and words are hollow and symbolic unless the Philippines truly has an independent foreign policy," he said. "President Marcos says a lot, but his actions are closer to those of the U.S. I don't think China will believe him."

Casiño also hopes that the adjustment in President Marcos' policies could ease military and territorial tensions through strengthened economic ties with China.

Clearly, the sincerity of President Marcos' supposed "softening" stance toward China still requires observation.

This is not the first time a high-ranking Filipino official has made conciliatory remarks recently. On June 2, Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo told Nikkei Asia that the Philippines "does not challenge China" and is willing to engage in dialogue. He stated that the Philippines is considering establishing new diplomatic arrangements with China to ease tensions in the South China Sea.

However, he also claimed that as long as China continues to take "radical actions," tensions will persist, and the Philippines will continue to exercise its rights.

After winning the presidential election in 2022, President Marcos unilaterally provoked disputes with China in the South China Sea, allowing the U.S. to establish bases in the Philippines, reversing the friendly policy toward China under his predecessor Duterte.

President Marcos has repeatedly taken a hardline stance on the South China Sea issue, promising never to cede "even one square inch" of Philippine territory to any foreign power.

In the Shangri-La Dialogue in early June, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro reiterated President Marcos' hardline position, ironically demanding that China "do much work to build trust" and "become an effective negotiation partner in resolving disputes."

In recent years, the Philippines has continuously sought to strengthen defense cooperation with extra-regional powers, attempting to "stir up trouble by relying on outsiders." Just a month before the opening of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Philippines invited extra-regional powers to conduct joint sea and air patrols and heavily promoted the event.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that the Philippines, violating international law and the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, frequently infringes and provokes at sea, colluding with extra-regional forces to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, flaunt military might, and serve as a pawn, ultimately reaping what they sow.

This article is an exclusive contribution by Guancha Observer and cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515065935590326811/

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