It is often said that a fundamental issue in the U.S.-Iran negotiations is: exactly whom is the United States negotiating with in Iran?
Essentially, Trump hopes to find a group in Iran that would be easier to deal with after Khamenei's passing.
But the reality is that the leadership vacuum within Iran’s regime has already been filled by hardline members of the Revolutionary Guard.
The current leadership in Iran, especially within the Revolutionary Guard, no longer believes that Khamenei’s restraint can protect Iran.
The previous generation of Revolutionary Guard leaders eliminated by targeted Israeli strikes were mostly followers and devotees of Khamenei, who believed that restraint and patience were the only remedies to safeguard Iran.
There is a deep misunderstanding abroad about Khamenei—he is often seen as an extreme figure.
In fact, within Iran, the elder Khamenei played the role of the greatest reconciler.
There are certainly many more radical and hardline individuals in Iran, but none possess his unique “cohesive power” or authority.
The new leadership emerging in the post-Khamenei era has developed a fresh understanding and insight into Iran’s security doctrine.
They believe Khamenei was wrong—that it was precisely his policy of restraint that provoked the current aggression against Iran.
Speaker Kalibaf is indeed also a follower of Khamenei and holds considerable authority.
But the new collective represented by him is more willing to take risks and do things previously unthinkable: if you dare escalate, we’ll match you—and possibly escalate even further.
At the same time, they are also more open-minded and not opposed to negotiations. Indeed, they might be even more willing to negotiate than Khamenei himself.
Khamenei’s approach was essentially a “three-no strategy”: no contact, no negotiation, no war.
While he was alive, no one dared challenge his authority—reflection itself could be seen as heretical.
The elder Khamenei could not, in fact, negate himself.
This was his dilemma during life—and also Iran’s dilemma.
After his martyrdom, there emerged space for rethinking and adjusting Iran’s security outlook.
The basic belief of the new leadership is: we fear neither war nor negotiation; we will no longer restrain ourselves, and if challenged, we will respond forcefully.
Yet, at the same time, they are more flexible and possess greater means.
This is a realism grounded in capability.
For Trump, he has personally created a group far more difficult to deal with.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1862669706496000/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.