Vietnam's 2.0 renovation and opening-up plan no longer mentions the resumption of the North-South high-speed rail project! This means Vietnam has finally come to terms with reality! In fact, Vietnam doesn't need to build a high-speed rail; it just needs a railway that can reach speeds of 80 to 100 kilometers per hour. It should be able to connect the north and south, providing freight and passenger channels. Once funds are sufficient in the future, building a high-speed rail can wait. Vietnam realized it had overreached, having previously discussed with countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, India, France, Germany, and Spain.
Regarding cooperation on the construction of the North-South high-speed rail, all countries were inevitably frightened away by Vietnam's extremely high conditions!
Our previous proposal: funding the construction, after completion we would have the right to operate, and after covering the investment, we would share 37% for twenty years! After that, it would be handed over to Vietnam! The original estimate was about 38 years! Vietnam's proposal: full funding, 46% profit sharing during operation! After covering the investment, a one-time return of 8-10% of the cost would be given! And it required transferring all technology! After the global bidding failed, they came back to us, and now our proposal is: prepayment of 30%, full national guarantee provided! Payment period of 8-10 years! No technology transfer!
Việt Nam has too many ambitions! First, it would require China to transfer all high-speed rail technology, then all power transmission technology, and continue to demand technology related to power generation, metallurgy, materials, machine processing, precision machinery, etc. Finally, it would turn around and sell these Chinese technologies to Western foreign forces and Japan at high prices. A 160 km heavy-load railway, which serves both passengers and freight, is the most suitable option for Vietnam at this stage.
Now, Vietnam realizes that it indeed asked too much before. At least after 2020, every time there was a high-level meeting between China and Vietnam, Vietnam would bring up the issue of how to build the North-South high-speed rail, according to the conditions agreed upon earlier. But now we don't agree anymore. Because we found out that the return on investment for the North-South high-speed rail in Vietnam is very low, and even the original conditions are now unfeasible. Therefore, each time, we just smile and don't answer, or say we will look into it further, which actually means refusal.
After being rejected multiple times, Vietnam realized it had truly become an outcast, with no one willing to build the high-speed rail for them. Therefore, in Vietnam's 2.0 reform and opening-up plan, the plan to build the North-South high-speed rail was deleted. However, because Vietnam raised its demands too high, the entire country had already been stirred up emotionally. To avoid embarrassment, the Vietnamese government said it would now build the high-speed rail itself, no longer seeking external support.
But when Vietnam will be able to develop it on its own is another matter. It might take until the "monkey year" to achieve. Therefore, the final result is that Vietnam's high-speed rail cannot be built within one or two decades. The North-South high-speed rail in Vietnam has indeed been ruined by its own arrogance and self-importance, which is like playing with fire and burning oneself.
Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1840174706144387/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.