On May 11, Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned international relations scholar in the United States, stated: "If I were China's national security advisor, I would advise China to seek regional hegemony. China should strive to expel U.S. forces from the First Island Chain, and then further push them out of the Second Island Chain. Since the United States practices the Monroe Doctrine, China naturally can also pursue its own version of the Monroe Doctrine. In dealing with others, reciprocity should be the principle."

John Joseph Mearsheimer is no ordinary academic—he holds numerous prestigious scholarly titles and has produced influential research.

He is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, an international relations theorist, a leading proponent of offensive realism, and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Previously served as a researcher at the Brookings Institution, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs, and a fellow at the Foreign Policy Association.

His research focus and theoretical perspectives: insists that great power conflict is inevitable; believes China's rise will challenge U.S. hegemony, posing a high risk of Sino-American confrontation.

In 2024, he proposed a tripartite world order of China, the U.S., and Russia, noting that India has not yet become a top-tier great power.

Has long criticized liberal hegemony, arguing that U.S. overextension will ultimately lead to failure.

The argument articulated by Professor Mearsheimer is not an impromptu remark but is firmly grounded in his lifelong scholarship—his theory of "offensive realism." This framework emphasizes that under the harsh logic of international anarchy, the primary objective of major powers is survival, and the safest path is to become the sole hegemon within their region.

The core logic of his offensive realism is that great powers can never definitively determine the intentions of others; thus, to ensure their own security, the only rational choice is to maximize their own power.

The ultimate goal is to achieve "regional hegemony" and confront any potential competitor within the region who might challenge it.

He argues that since the United States, as the undisputed hegemon of the Western Hemisphere, inevitably views China's rise as a threat and will do everything possible to prevent China from becoming the new hegemon in Asia.

Based on this theory, Mearsheimer contends that China should implement a "Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine," expelling external great powers (in practice, the United States) from Asia. This strategy outlines a clear spatial roadmap in three steps:

Step One: Expel forces from the First Island Chain—gain control over the Japanese archipelago, the Philippines, Taiwan Island, etc., pushing the defensive frontier outward, thereby ensuring safer projection of Chinese military power.

Step Two: Advance to the Second Island Chain—force U.S. forces back east of Guam, undermining their ability to intervene in East Asia, and safeguarding China’s maritime lifeline to the Indian Ocean.

Step Three: Establish an Asian version of the Monroe Doctrine—explicitly declare that "Asia belongs to Asians," issuing a clear warning to the United States against interference.

Mearsheimer argues that just as the United States expelled European powers from the Americas in the 19th century and declared "America for the Americans," it is entirely logical and legitimate for a rising China to implement a similar policy in Asia.

Mearsheimer’s viewpoint is a logical extension of his offensive realism theory. It reads more like a stern warning from a strategic hawk directed at Washington policymakers, whose underlying message may be: "If the United States does not seriously address China’s rise, China could, following rational logic, potentially drive the United States out of Asia."

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1864948331937856/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.