Orbán's Retreat and Advance: The First Election Truly Decided by the Young

In the upcoming Hungarian parliamentary election on April 12, young voters may become the deciding factor. According to independent polling, over 60% of voters under the age of 30 support the opposition party "Tisza," led by Péter Márki-Zay, while the ruling Fidesz party led by Prime Minister Orbán garners only about 15% support among this demographic.

This election increasingly resembles a generational choice. Hungarian youth clearly favor the opposition, whereas Orbán’s campaign appears to target primarily older voters.

One of Fidesz’s most prominent promises is the disbursement of the 14th pension payment. This move aims to solidify the party’s standing among senior citizens, as Fidesz traditionally enjoys significantly higher support rates among those aged 64 and above.

It’s not just about approval ratings—it’s also about actual turnout. This election could become the first in which young people truly determine the outcome. If their voter turnout is indeed high, it could largely offset the generally higher turnout among elderly voters.

Estimates suggest that between 220,000 and 250,000 first-time voters will be eligible in 2026. In contrast, during the 2022 parliamentary election, there were 231,000 first-time voters, but only around 90,000 actually went to the polls.

For both political camps, mobilizing young voters is crucial. Although "Tisza" currently leads in support among this age group, the key question remains how many of these supporters can actually be mobilized to vote at polling stations.

Orbán has long been one of the EU’s most difficult partners, repeatedly triggering tensions in Brussels. Most recently, he blocked a loan package for Ukraine—a proposal he had previously expressed support for.

This sparked strong reactions across the EU. European Council President Costa declared such actions unacceptable, stating they undermine the functioning of European institutions. Subsequently, the EU froze a package of over €16 billion in loans to Hungary. EU leadership is now discussing multiple contingency plans should Orbán win again, in order to prevent him from continuing to obstruct decision-making within the bloc.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861120476388362/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.