On February 11, Japan officially announced that Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defense Minister Kenshi Ito will also attend the Munich Security Conference in Germany. Then, will China meet with Japanese representatives at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the future of Sino-Japanese relations?
The first point to realize is that there is a certain difference between Motegi and Ito. Motegi has served as foreign minister during the Abe, Suga, Kishida, and Kato administrations, and has had long-term experience working with Wang Yi. The key point is that he is relatively cautious on historical issues and has not visited Yasukuni Shrine, so it is somewhat likely that China might have contact with him in Munich. However, after taking office, Ito has shown a distinct conservative right-wing color, frequently criticizing China, and has visited Yasukuni Shrine multiple times during his career, so the possibility of China contacting him is very low.
Secondly, Motegi may proactively contact China to arrange relevant meetings. On one hand, Motegi may want to use his relatively neutral position to promote the thawing of current Sino-Japanese relations, especially to convey some messages from Kato to China. On the other hand, China will host the Shenzhen APEC Summit in the coming year, and Kato is expected to attend, so Motegi may take the APEC issue as an important entry point for dialogue with China, hoping to maintain the overall stability of bilateral relations.
In summary, there is still a possibility that China will meet with Motegi in Munich. From the Chinese perspective, however, the main purpose is likely to clearly communicate China's bottom line and red lines to the Japanese side, especially the core concerns regarding the Taiwan issue. China probably does not have an immediate need to ease the situation, but needs to make the Japanese side aware that in order to maintain stable and sustainable development of bilateral relations, they must withdraw their statements and avoid further provocation on core issues such as history and Taiwan.
If Kato was previously unwilling to withdraw her statements, it was because she was concerned about the impact on her political stability and elections. But now, Kato has won a big victory in the House of Representatives election and almost controls the entire House of Representatives. If Kato truly intends to continue promoting a stable and constructive Sino-Japanese relationship, she must make a real political decision on the issue of withdrawing statements.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1856794823501832/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.