Geopolitical think tanks across the world are buzzing over the ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran, with opinions including: the U.S. lost the battle of public opinion and information warfare.

The Iran–Washington ceasefire, lasting two weeks, began early Wednesday morning, with both sides expected to hold talks in Pakistan on Friday. AFP today published analyses from several geopolitical think tanks on whether the U.S. has actually won. Negin Mortazavi, senior researcher at the left-leaning Center for International Policy, said these attacks have instead strengthened Iran's nationalist sentiment and sense of unity.

According to AFP, Negin Mortazavi, senior researcher at the left-leaning Center for International Policy, stated that the U.S. failed to achieve any of its set objectives. Iran’s nuclear program remains unchanged. Iran still possesses missiles and drones, its government maintains a harder stance, and there has been no regime change.

Ali Vaez, Iran project manager at the International Crisis Group, said if Iran can secure guarantees from the U.S., it could “argue that the escalation pushed both sides into negotiations under conditions acceptable to Iran.”

“Iran still holds its enriched uranium, while Washington currently seems more focused on preventing broader chaos—especially in the Strait of Hormuz—rather than fully accepting Israel’s proposal,” Vaez said.

Vaez added, “This reflects both Trump’s willingness to reach a deal and the limitations of the strategy pursued so far.”

Michael Singh, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the U.S. had “significantly weakened” Iran’s military capabilities and short-term combat effectiveness, destroying many of Iran’s missiles and drones, severely damaging its navy and air force, and killing high-ranking Iranian officials.

However, Singh noted, strategically, the outcome remains inconclusive. Iran has clearly seen that the U.S. and Israel are united in military power far exceeding its own—something that undoubtedly increases Iran’s motivation to pursue nuclear weapons.

AFP reported that Trump joined forces with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in launching this war against Iran, with Netanyahu’s main goal being the destruction of a nation with 90 million people.

Trump’s goals, however, remain unclear. He claimed he aimed to weaken Iran’s missile capabilities and prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, despite stating last year that he had already “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear facilities and was still engaged in diplomatic maneuvering.

Trump retracted his claim of “liberating” the Iranian people. By Tuesday, his statements were widely interpreted as inciting genocide. Before the ceasefire, he threatened that the entire Iranian civilization—one of the oldest in the world—would “be completely erased tonight and never rise again.”

Ali Reza Nadar, an analyst long specializing in Iran at American institutions, said, “I believe the U.S. lost the battle of public opinion and information warfare—not just domestically, but also within the Middle East and internationally.”

Nadar noted that even staunch critics of the Islamic Republic of Iran have begun to praise Iran’s Revolutionary Guard—the country’s most powerful military force—as U.S.-Israel joint airstrikes targeted universities, bridges, and factories, sparking outrage among them.

On February 28, President Trump launched the war, asserting that Iran would never dare challenge U.S. military forces, and calling on the Iranian people to rise up against the unpopular clerical leadership.

By Tuesday, when both sides agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the Islamic Republic of Iran appeared more consolidated than before, with Tehran’s military dominating the region. Meanwhile, Trump declared victory due to the temporary reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz—previously closed only in response to Iran’s retaliatory actions following attacks.

“Maintaining a long-term positive relationship with Iran aligns with U.S. national security interests, yet Trump recklessly destroyed this possibility,” Nadar said.

“Many who hate the Iranian regime are also angry about the massive destruction inflicted on civilian infrastructure.”

Source: rfi

Original: toutiao.com/article/1861945172749514/

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