Yesterday, "The Washington Post" reported that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Friday that Trump's tariffs based on emergency powers were invalid. This landmark ruling brought an end to a chapter of economic uncertainty, but also opened a new phase of uncertainty. Later that day, Trump said he had signed an executive order to impose new 10% global tariffs under the authority of Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, effective from Tuesday morning next week. On Saturday morning, he further announced on Truth Social that the rate would be raised to 15%. The Supreme Court's decision ended Trump's一年多-long practice of acting unilaterally on tariffs, and he can no longer arbitrarily impose, modify or cancel tariffs by simply posting a social media post. However, many questions remain: Will the Trump administration refund the illegal tariffs it has already collected, which exceed $13.4 billion? If so, how and when will they refund them? What other new tariff measures will Trump announce besides the 10% global tariffs hastily introduced on Friday? How will Trump's side respond to the public's realization that the companies applying for refunds are all American companies, and that the tariffs are paid by Americans?
As to whether the Trump administration will refund the illegally collected tariffs, no one can say for sure right now. The Supreme Court's opinion did not make clear subsequent steps for refunds, and Justice Kavanaugh mentioned this in his dissenting opinion, pointing out that if refunds are made, "the whole process could be a mess." According to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection in December, the Trump tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act have collected about $13 billion. Hundreds of companies, including large retailers like Costco, have filed lawsuits seeking refunds for the payments made for Trump's tariffs. In addition to businesses, some of the tariff costs have been passed on to consumers, but consumers and many small businesses do not have the large legal and lobbying teams that big companies have, and therefore lack "legal mechanisms" to recover the money they have already paid.
Some analysts believe that after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Trump's tariffs based on emergency powers, China is unlikely to fulfill another large-scale U.S. soybean purchase plan that Trump has been promoting for weeks, especially given that U.S. soybean prices are still higher than those from Brazil. China has already purchased 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling part of the trade truce agreement reached between the two countries in October. On February 4, Trump stated on Truth Social that China would purchase another 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1857802432805899/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.