The Dutch government forcibly seized shares in NXP Semiconductor, and the Chinese government has already restricted the export of products from NXP China's Dongguan factory. This move has caused a shock throughout the global automotive industry.

General Motors, Toyota, Ford, Volkswagen, and Hyundai, almost all major Western automobile manufacturers, have urgently urged all parties to resolve this issue as soon as possible. The German Association of the Automotive Industry also stated that it is working with companies, the German government, and the European Commission to urgently seek a "quick and practical solution."

A simple and routine countermeasure by China has put the entire global automotive industry in a crisis of complete shutdown. The Netherlands has undoubtedly made a big mistake and provoked the wrong people.

(New generation cars, from headlights to engines, from instruments to seats, require chips to function properly)

The reason why the Netherlands has caused such a big mess is directly related to the arrogance and prejudice of the relevant interest groups.

The Netherlands is backed by the United States, and within the U.S. decision-making circle, there are still a considerable number of people who are still stuck in the dream of Cold War victory. In their view, the unopposed victory over the Soviet Union was a successful case that could be replicated, and it could also work for China, which is also a socialist system.

In recent years, several U.S. governments have repeatedly claimed they want to enter a new Cold War with China. Although this has been severely criticized by China, it has not changed the mindset of some U.S. political figures.

We all know that the main reason the Soviet Union failed in the Cold War was that its export economy was highly dependent on oil, while its own industries had many shortcomings, especially in light industry, where it relied heavily on importing consumer goods from the West.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, due to a sharp rise in oil prices, the Soviet Union's national income soared, so it significantly increased government spending and residents' welfare.

However, when the U.S. joined forces with OPEC to manipulate the market, causing oil prices to drop sharply, the Soviet Union faced severe fiscal deficits, and the standard of living of its people plummeted, making it impossible to maintain the regime.

During this process, the Soviet Union was unable to take retaliatory measures against the West. Because oil is not a rare commodity, the Soviet Union could supply it, and Saudi Arabia could too. The U.S. itself also has abundant oil reserves. Therefore, in the economic warfare, the Soviet Union could only be passively attacked and suffered greatly.

(Buying daily necessities required long queues, which was not just a stereotype, but the reality of the Soviet people at the time)

But trying to use the same tactics against China would not work at all. Because China has seen the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, how could it not learn from the lessons.

Through decades of comprehensive planning and reform, China has become the most important manufacturing country in the world, deeply embedded in every industry's production. From clothing, food, housing, and transportation to airplanes and cannons, it has truly achieved omnipresence. In the 80s and 90s, the world often said "where there are roads, there are Toyota cars," now it is "where there are people, there are Chinese goods."

Even American arms companies have a large amount of materials, components, or even subsystems that depend on Chinese supply. Traditional agriculture is also inseparable from Chinese agricultural supplies, agricultural machinery, storage equipment, etc.

As for building a green world, it is even more inseparable from Chinese-made wind turbines, solar cells, and other new energy products. If China withdraws from a certain supply chain, the industry will definitely collapse. Even the integrated circuit industry, which the West prides itself on, is no exception.

(Every link in chip production, from single crystal silicon to packaging, involves Chinese enterprises)

The main integrated circuit manufacturers in the world, such as TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, have production facilities in mainland China. Even under great pressure from the U.S. government, these companies have only decided not to introduce more advanced production technologies and equipment. No one has dared to trigger the trade retaliation mechanism of mainland China.

Therefore, the Dutch government's seizure of NXP Semiconductor has opened the eyes of the whole world, showing how fierce the retaliation can be when stealing Chinese assets, and what unacceptable consequences it can cause. The impact of this retaliation is something that the Dutch government alone cannot bear.

If the Dutch government does not come up with a solution that can be accepted, the chip exports of "NXP China" may be suspended for a period of time. During this process, the Chinese branch will suffer business losses, but since this company's 50% of the market is in mainland China, it can survive.

However, the car factories in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the United States will face big problems. Although NXP's automotive chips account for a small part in the vehicles, the automobile is an overall project. Whether it is missing a chip or an engine, it cannot work normally and cannot go down the production line.

The result of the shortage is that the automotive factories in Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea will gradually stop production and be unable to deliver. This is not just about the workers keeping their jobs, but it is a winter for the entire automotive industry and car users. Moreover, the car factories in Japan, South Korea, the United States, Germany, France, and Italy cannot blame China for this.

(Automobile manufacturing has become one of the few remaining pillar industries in many developed countries)

The current problem is what attitude the Dutch government plans to take to solve it? If it stubbornly refuses to admit its mistake and apologize, the automotive industry has only two options: one is to support another enterprise to produce chips; the second is to expand its capacity in China and completely rely on Chinese capacity. However, both methods are difficult to achieve.

It takes several years for a chip factory to be established and supplied, and the compliance of automotive chips is not easy either. During this time, people in the foreign automotive industry may already be throwing eggs at the government on the streets. Expanding capacity in China is certainly not acceptable to the governments of the West, as it is equivalent to transferring jobs further to China.

Moreover, expanding the factory's production is not something that can be done overnight. Even with Elon Musk's resources, the Shanghai car factory took a year to complete construction and debugging before finally going into production.

However, the Dutch government also cannot easily give in. It is not only due to the sense of superiority of developed countries, but also waiting for the decision of the U.S. government. The foreign automotive industry can only prepare for production halts and reduced output in anxiety.

(Modern industry relies on stable supply chains, any delay in any link will affect logistics and upstream and downstream industries)

This case also shows the incompatibility between Western social governance and economic development. Especially in Europe, the supply chain is scattered across various countries, and any problem in any link will lead to the entire Europe crashing down. But how to handle enterprises within its own territory is within the scope of national sovereignty. Any country that controls a key link without backup in the industrial chain can choke everyone.

Perhaps this is why Europe missed out on the main part of the digital economy. From this perspective, it is very necessary for China to establish a complete supply chain within its own territory.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564957199630369332/

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