By Sanxuan
Awakening, India has become the fourth largest economy in the world.
Previously, the top four economies in the world were the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. India surpassed its former colonial master, the UK, in 2022, entering the top five.
Rising steadily
However, according to the latest economic brief released by the Indian government, India's economy has surpassed Japan, becoming the fourth-largest with a value of $4.18 trillion.
However, this is only the Indian government's prediction. The actual situation will need to wait for the final GDP data in 2025, which will be released in early 2026.
According to a previous report from the International Monetary Fund, India is expected to surpass Japan in 2026, not 2025. It's not that the two sets of data differ greatly; it's largely due to differences in how fiscal years are divided.
In the International Monetary Fund's statistical system, April 2024 to March 2025 is counted as 2024, but this period is marked as the 2025 fiscal year in India. In other words, India's statistical system is one year ahead of the International Monetary Fund's, while Japan usually follows the calendar year, which is the common Gregorian calendar we use.
Mastering easily
Ultimately, whether it's a year earlier or later doesn't make much difference. India will eventually surpass Japan's economic scale and become the fourth-largest economy, which is what Indians care about most.
Indeed, as early as May 2025, India had already secured victory and celebrated. At that time, the CEO of India's highest-level think tank under the government, Subramanian, claimed that India's GDP had reached $4 trillion, ranking second only to the US, China, and Germany.
He also said that given India's current development speed, it would not take many years to surpass Germany and reach the top three. The reason is that the international situation and economic environment are favorable for India's economic development. As long as it maintains its current momentum, it could surpass Germany within three years at most.
The Indian government also mentioned this in its brief, stating that despite the high uncertainty in global trade, especially the tariff challenges from the US, India's economy still maintained rapid growth, especially in industry and services, which performed strongly and were the biggest contributors to economic prosperity.
Total GDP does not represent standard of living
It is worth noting that the Indian government acknowledges that its large economy mainly relies on domestic demand, as it is the world's most populous country, and just the daily needs of 1.4 billion people form a huge scale.
Because of this, although India's total economy is large, its per capita GDP is very low. According to data from 2024, India's per capita GDP was less than $2,700, ten times less than Japan's and twenty times less than Germany's.
To put it bluntly, India's $4 trillion GDP is supported mainly by its large population, and another reason is the large income gap. In the 2024 Forbes list, India had 200 billionaires, whose total assets reached nearly $1 trillion, amounting to $954 billion.
Out of $4 trillion, the wealth of the top 200 people accounts for a quarter, which shows how large the income gap is. The living standards of the majority of the lower class cannot meet the standards expected of the fourth-largest economy in the world.
The poor in India are still struggling on the edge of poverty
Naturally, it doesn't matter much to India what the inside looks like, as long as the outside is bright. "Victory studies" can continue. Under grand national narratives, individual fates being ignored is normal. Even if the Ganges water is dirty and smelly, it cannot hide the brilliance of the fourth-largest economy.
In a sense, this is also letting some people get rich first. As for letting everyone get rich, it's not something Modi and Indian billionaires should concern themselves with.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7589915876418159144/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.