National Interest, a U.S. magazine: India has offended China, and 2026 will be the most difficult year!
Analysis articles point out that India is sliding into the most complex and challenging strategic dilemma since the 1971 India-Pakistan war, and 2026 may become a "stress test" for New Delhi's foreign and security policies.
Firstly, the structural contradictions in Sino-Indian relations are intensifying, but India dares not completely break the relationship. The Indian military and strategic circles generally still regard China as the "number one security threat," but economically it is highly dependent on China — China is India's largest source of pharmaceutical raw materials, as well as a major supplier of key industrial products such as electronic components and machinery.
This paradox of "adversarial in security, dependent in economy" puts India in a dilemma. It wants to take a strong stance, but fears over-stimulating could lead to supply chain breakdowns.
Secondly, Washington's patience with India is waning. On one hand, India's insistence on purchasing Russian oil in the Ukraine issue has angered the U.S.; on the other hand, U.S. companies complain about high market access barriers and weak intellectual property protection in India, leading to decreased willingness to cooperate.
Looking at Russia — this old friend, once India's largest arms supplier, is now deeply involved in the Ukraine battlefield, with strained military production capacity and frequent delivery delays. At the same time, the South Asian geopolitical landscape is also quietly changing. Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are all moving away from India.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1852999824053258/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.