[By Guancha Network Columnist Ruo Xi]

From being just a step away from the presidency to being sentenced to four years in prison, France's far-right political party "National Rally" leader Marine Le Pen has experienced what "Western democracy" means these past few days.

A single leaf reveals the autumn; Le Pen's experience has also brought tremendous impact to Europe's far-right political parties.

Since Trump's first term, the strength of Europe's far-right forces has gradually increased, and in recent years, they have stood out in elections in several countries, exerting significant influence. As the leader of France's far-right political party "National Rally," Marine Le Pen, with her distinct political stance and radical rhetoric, has caused quite a stir in French and even European politics.

Therefore, Le Pen's conviction has sparked immense controversy on the global political stage—centered around the prohibition of her running for public office. Especially given her support rate of 34%-37%, the deprivation of her eligibility to run for public office is it the result of judicial fairness or the triumph of the establishment's political witch hunt? Moreover, what impact will Le Pen's experience bring to the development of Europe's far-right political parties?

Is the legal judgment fair?

According to the verdict of the Paris Criminal Court, Le Pen was found guilty of misappropriating EU public funds and sentenced to four years in prison, two of which are served at home, along with a fine of €100,000. Le Pen was also immediately banned from running for public office for five years, and this ban takes effect immediately even during an appeal, meaning she cannot participate in the 2027 French presidential election.

On March 31st local time, Le Pen stated that she would not simply let herself be eliminated and appealed the court decision regarding the charge of misappropriating public funds. Screenshot from France TV One program.

The judgment against Le Pen was based on France's Sapin II law. This law was enacted in 2016 and involves political transparency and anti-corruption, specifically designed to supervise lobbying activities. The Sapin II law amends Article L432-17 of the Penal Code and specifies additional penalties for crimes committed by public officials violating their duty of integrity (such as corruption, illegal profit-making, and favoritism), including the disqualification from running for office. Additionally, in 2017, the Law on Trust in Political Life introduced Article 131-26-2 of the Penal Code, stipulating that those convicted of serious violence, sexual assault, terrorism, and embezzlement of public funds shall receive additional punishment of disqualification from running for office.1

Although, according to the principle of individualized punishment, French courts can decide, under reasonable conditions, not to impose the penalty of disqualifying candidates for office based on the specifics of the crime and the suspect. In practice, all similar cases of embezzlement of public funds from 2017 to 2023 resulted in convictions that included disqualification from running for office.2 Therefore, from a judicial perspective, banning Le Pen from running for office complies with the consistent rulings for similar cases.

However, since this law has been in effect for a short time and there are limited precedents, this matter may be submitted again to the Constitutional Council for further discussion, and Le Pen still has the possibility of appealing successfully. But when she was found guilty and the ban on her candidacy took immediate effect, public trust in the rule of law was already undermined. Renowned French lawyer Jean-Yves Le Borgne also spoke out in defense of Le Pen: “This temporary disqualification violates the presumption of innocence principle.”3

Dual standards in the EU's gray area?

Although the judgment is legally valid, it touches on a gray area in EU politics. Le Pen indeed misappropriated EU public funds, but the money did not enrich her personally; instead, it was ultimately used to pay salaries to assistants working for the "National Rally." This is not an isolated case in the EU. As former European Parliament assistant Connor Allen said: “Every political group and every national delegation has violated the same rules as Ms. Le Pen—employing staff to handle matters unrelated to the European Parliament.”4

Connor Allen commented on Le Pen's verdict. Source: X

Theoretically, European Parliament assistants are employees of the European Parliament, not of the Members of Parliament they serve. Therefore, assistants are prohibited from handling national party affairs, election campaigns, or press work unrelated to the Parliament. However, James Tidmarsh, an international lawyer, pointed out in his commentary article published in the British Spectator magazine that, in practice, it is not uncommon for European Parliament assistants to help the political groups they serve handle party affairs unrelated to the Parliament, including communications, media briefings, campaign coordination, and speechwriting, etc.5

Multiple sources familiar with the internal operations of the European Parliament also revealed to Euronews that misuse of special funds within the Parliament is quite common, but not all instances of fund misuse are taken to court. In some cases, the Parliament conducts internal administrative checks and requests members to return misused funds. If fraud is suspected, the Parliament can refer the issue to European and national authorities. In other cases, the EU Anti-Fraud Office receives reports and decides whether to investigate after a preliminary screening phase.6

This is not the first time Le Pen and her party have faced accusations of misusing public funds. In 2016, the EU Anti-Fraud Office requested Le Pen to return €340,000 in parliamentary assistant salaries. These assistants were allegedly her staff in the National Front (which was renamed the National Rally in 2018). In 2017, French investigators once again conducted a surprise raid on the National Front headquarters to investigate whether the National Front had misappropriated European Parliament funds to pay the salaries of 20 members who worked both as parliamentary assistants and continued to work for the party. The National Front stated: “This is the second raid targeting the same office and with the same accusation, proving that the first raid was meaningless.”7

Years later, as Le Pen is about to make another bid for the French presidency, the accusation of misusing public funds strikes like an arrow at her and the National Rally. Can Le Pen and the National Rally escape this time?

The Fate of Europe's Far-Right Forces

Looking across Europe, the rise of far-right forces can be described as "the fire burns out but returns with the spring breeze."

After World War II, mainstream left and right parties in Europe united to reject the acceptance of far-right ideologies or cooperation with far-right parties, building a "firewall" to keep far-right parties out of core power.

However, in recent years, with changes in the international landscape, far-right ideologies have gained momentum, and more and more center-right parties have adopted far-right policies. In some countries, center-right parties have even formed alliances with far-right parties. In the Netherlands and Italy, right-wing parties have gained the upper hand: In 2022, the right-wing coalition led by Brothers of Italy, a far-right party, won the election, and in 2023, the far-right Freedom Party in the Netherlands also won the most seats in the House of Representatives, shocking Europe.

As "non-mainstream" forces in Europe's political spectrum, the rise of far-right parties has not been an easy journey. In Europe, far-right parties and their leaders face investigations and trials due to alleged illegal activities, and such cases are not uncommon.

French far-right political journalist and 2022 presidential candidate Éric Zemmour has been convicted three times for anti-immigration and anti-Muslim hate speech. In 2011, he was fined €10,000 for saying on television that "most drug dealers are black and Arab." In 2018, he was ordered to pay €3,000 for stating that Muslims were "invading" France. In 2022, Zemmour was fined €10,000 for saying on CNews channel in 2020 that "child migrants are thieves, killers, and rapists." Zemmour claimed this ruling violated freedom of speech: "This is the ideological infiltration of the justice system condemning the spirit of freedom."8 Despite this, Zemmour was not disqualified from running for office.

In addition, Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy and one of the key figures of the far-right, has also been prosecuted for refusing to allow refugee ships to dock while serving as the interior minister. In September 2024, the Palermo Prosecutor's Office in Sicily sought a six-year sentence for Salvini on charges of illegal detention and abuse of authority. However, in December of the same year, the Palermo District Court acquitted Salvini in the first instance trial.

Far-right political figures face investigations and trials for violating "political correctness," and their efforts to expand their influence have set off alarm bells among those in power.

In January this year, the interview between Alice Weidel, leader of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Elon Musk broadcast live on X sparked accusations of Musk and X intervening in German elections. The EU Commission is actively reviewing whether X violated the EU Digital Services Act, particularly whether X's algorithm increased the exposure of specific political content, giving far-right parties like the AfD stronger promotional power and affecting election outcomes. Although there is no definitive conclusion yet, this case has once again pushed the AfD into the spotlight.9

Among those who share the same fate as Le Pen is Călin Georgescu, a far-right candidate from Romania. In last November's Romanian presidential election, he ranked first in the first round of voting with a high vote share of 22.95%. However, the Romanian authorities refused to accept this result, accusing Russia of interfering in the election. Ultimately, the Romanian Constitutional Court canceled the results of the first round of the presidential election in December, and the re-election is scheduled for May this year.

On March 9th, the Central Electoral Commission of Romania announced that it would ban far-right candidate Călin Georgescu from participating in the re-vote of the presidential election to be held in May. Visual China

However, on February 26th, Georgescu was once arrested by Romanian police on charges of disrupting constitutional order, promoting anti-Semitic rhetoric, spreading false information, etc., although he was eventually released, he still faces multiple charges and is subject to 60 days of judicial supervision, requiring regular police questioning.

On March 9th, the Central Electoral Commission composed of judges from the Supreme Court of Romania and representatives of political parties issued a statement, rejecting Georgescu's application for candidacy with a 10-to-4 vote. Having led the race in the general election and being just one step away from the presidency, Georgescu not only had his initial victory overturned but also failed to secure a spot in the re-election, raising questions about the legitimacy of this election.

How the "Le Pens" Break Through

In recent years, Europe's far-right forces have grown stronger, especially in Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands, where far-right parties have achieved significant support in elections, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with issues such as immigration, the EU, and economic crises. It also indicates that far-right parties are increasingly mature in leveraging social emotions to win more votes.

In 2022, a far-right coalition government led by Meloni was established in Italy, comprising Meloni's far-right party Brothers and the far-right Alliance Party led by Salvini, supported by the conservative center-right party Forza Italia. In recent years, Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Netherlands' Freedom Party (PVV) have also gradually grown. The rise of these parties has, to some extent, disrupted Europe's traditional political map, challenging the ruling situation of mainstream center-left and center-right parties.

Meanwhile, the rising European far-right parties naturally face pressure from the establishment from multiple fronts. Aside from the "firewall" of politics and judicial reviews, those in power gradually attract attention through the practice of restricting far-right activities through dual standards in funding distribution.

According to reports by The Brussels Signal, the European Parliament is accused of restricting funding to far-right parties, sparking concerns about political bias. The core of the controversy lies in the advertising expenses reimbursement campaign conducted by the European Patriots (right-wing/extreme right-wing faction) in the Czech Republic. The European Parliament Administration, responsible for supervising the allocation of funds, ruled that the advertisement did not comply with regulations because the party emblem was too small, which might mislead Czech citizens into believing it was a domestic activity rather than an EU-wide event.

In addition, the European Patriots are also accused of "indirectly funding" political advertisements for the Czech far-right party Freedom and Direct Democracy. The European Patriots argued that the advertisement campaign was legitimate and pointed out that similar practices by the European Liberal Democratic Alliance and the European Democratic Party went unpunished. The European Patriots also claimed that their request to meet with the European Parliament Administration to discuss this issue was rejected. The administration's actions seem to confirm public concerns that far-right parties are subjected to stricter scrutiny than other political groups, and the European Parliament may selectively enforce funding rules based on political stance.10

Supporters of Georgescu protest outside the prosecutor's office. Associated Press

Le Pen's Opportunities

In the face of economic, legal, and political pressures from the establishment, far-right parties and leaders often adopt the strategy of portraying themselves as "political martyrs" to gain sympathy and support from the public.

The most successful precedent of this strategy is none other than Trump on the other side of the ocean. Despite being convicted of a serious crime for the "hush money" case, Trump still风光ly won the election by claiming the case was "political persecution" and a "witch hunt," becoming the first president in U.S. history to be elected with a criminal record.

Amidst the uproar, the disqualification of Le Pen and the "National Rally" also presents opportunities—by portraying herself as a "political martyr persecuted by the establishment," Le Pen can transform accusations into support for her personal and the political cause of the "National Rally," not only enhancing her prestige among far-right voters but also allowing the "National Rally" to potentially reach a broader base.

An early poll published by Le Figaro suggested severe divisions in French society regarding Le Pen's sentencing, with 54% believing she received the same treatment as other litigants, while 46% believed she was treated particularly harshly due to political reasons.11

In addition, Le Pen's forced withdrawal from the presidential race indirectly accelerates the leadership renewal process within the "National Rally," perhaps allowing the "National Rally" to survive and thrive in adversity. For example, Le Pen's rise represents the rebirth of the National Rally/National Front after the era of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. While inheriting her father's populist line, Le Pen also completed a transition of new and old generations, striving to shed the "far-right" label, enabling the "National Rally" to enter the mainstream political spectrum in France.

Now, the mission of leading the "National Rally" into the Elysée Palace falls to Le Pen's successor, Jordan Bardella. Can Bardella seize this opportunity to gain support within and outside the party and ultimately help the "National Rally" turn danger into safety and achieve rebirth? It remains uncertain.

One thing is certain: Le Pen's conviction is not the end of the struggle between the establishment and the far-right, but rather the beginning of a new round of political competition.

References:

1. [https://www.vie-publique.fr/questions-reponses/297965-ineligibilite-que-prevoient-les-lois-de-2016-et-2017]

2. [https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/risque-dineligibilite-de-marine-le-pen-les-requisitions-visant-la-responsable-du-rn-sont-elles-particulierement-severes-20241119_MSWKDJUYKZBUTMMMC5EGTGPYQE/]

3. [https://x.com/Europe1/status/1906415866201219299/history]

4. [https://x.com/ConnorAllenEU/status/1906689781997723736]

5. [https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-hypocrisy-behind-le-pens-disqualification/]

6. [https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/04/02/le-pen-not-alone-how-financial-misconduct-affects-european-parliament]

7. [https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20170221-Police-raid-Le-Pen-national-front-office-over-European-Parliament-fake-jobs]

8. [https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220117-french-far-right-presidential-candidate-zemmour-convicted-for-racist-hate-speech]

9. [https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-alice-weidel-alternative-for-germany-x-interview-eu-big-tech-regulation/]

10. [https://brusselssignal.eu/2025/03/european-parliament-accused-of-restricting-funding-to-right-wing-parties/]

11. [https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/six-francais-sur-dix-pensent-que-la-condamnation-de-marine-le-pen-ne-constitue-pas-un-handicap-pour-le-rn-20250331]

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