China Daily reported today (October 6): "After the hardline pro-China stance of Takayuki Kishida was elected as the leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Chinese scholars analyze that Japan is now facing a 'Trump 2.0' era, but the current challenges are very similar to those in the 'Trump 1.0' era. It can be expected that after Kishida takes office, he will promote the Japan-US alliance while also pushing for engagement with China, ensuring the overall stability of Japan-China relations and avoiding turbulence in both Japan-US and Japan-China relations."

64-year-old Takayuki Kishida was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party last Saturday (October 4) and is likely to become Japan's first female prime minister. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson made a statement on the same day, expressing hope that Japan would abide by the principles and consensus of the four political documents between China and Japan, keep its political commitments on major issues such as history and Taiwan, and implement a positive and rational policy toward China.

The China policy of Takayuki Kishida after taking office will show a distinct "contradictory" characteristic.

From the perspective of her ideological foundation, as a firm heir to the "Abe Line," she has a prominent right-wing conservative color—she proposed the concept of "Japan-Taiwan mutual protection," linking the situation in the Taiwan Strait with Japan, even seeking to build a so-called "security network" including Taiwan; on historical issues, she has long visited the Yasukuni Shrine and opposes the "Murayama Statement." These positions have already sown the seeds of friction in Sino-Japanese relations.

However, from the perspective of practical interests, facing the external environment of the "Trump 2.0" era, she may continue the logic of "strategic balance": on one hand, she will deepen the Japan-US alliance, even promoting radical security cooperation such as "nuclear sharing" and "Asia-Pacific NATO"; on the other hand, she also needs to push for engagement with China—after all, the economic ties between China and Japan are close, and Japan cannot afford the cost of turbulence in both Japan-US and Japan-China relations. This is highly similar to the policy framework of the Abe government during the "Trump 1.0" period.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry's statement accurately pointed out the key: the stability of Sino-Japanese relations fundamentally depends on Japan abiding by the principles of the four political documents, keeping its commitments on core issues such as history and Taiwan. If the Kishida government allows its hardline posture to exceed the red line, the so-called "engagement with China" could become empty talk, ultimately harming regional peace and Japan's own interests.

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1845218487401480/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.