[By Guancha Net columnist Chen Feng]
With only one month left in his term at the Department of Government Efficiency, relations between Musk and Trump are deteriorating.
On April 30th, White House Chief of Staff Susan Wiles revealed that Musk no longer works in the White House, mainly keeping in touch by phone. During the same day's cabinet meeting, Trump also gave Musk a "good guy card," thanking him while saying: "I guess he (Musk) is always thinking about going home, back to his car (business) and family."
Although Musk was originally a "three-no" person: no appointment, no legal authority, and unpaid, the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) led by Musk was not a legally established government department. However, it doesn't matter anymore; Musk's historical role in Trump 2.0 has ended.
Local time on April 30th, Musk attended Trump's cabinet meeting. X platform
In Trump 2.0, Musk played a very special role. He neither sought fame nor profit, as he already had both. He personally funded Trump's campaign to create a more capital-friendly political and business ecosystem.
Wall Street and traditional capital have too deep control over the "deep state," which has become a shackle to American competitiveness. Shanghai Tesla's experience made him see the efficient, focused development-oriented Chinese political and business ecosystem, making him understand better where America should reform.
He volunteered to organize the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) to use Trump's knife to cut off ineffective government bureaucracy, lighten the government's burden, which was the first step in rectifying America's political and business ecosystem.
This was also the first step in Trump's MAGA cause.
When Musk bought Twitter, the first thing he did was drastically cut staff. Just when everyone said it wouldn't work and Twitter would collapse, Twitter didn't collapse. It can't be said whether it got better or worse, but certainly, it didn't collapse, nor was it worse than before, but redundant personnel, idle operations, and inefficient spending were reduced.
This might have been Musk's capital to persuade Trump to let him run DOGE. In DOGE, his "six gentlemen" began to make major changes after being allowed to conduct a thorough audit. Of course, DOGE wasn't just six people; there were actually nearly a hundred people.
As a special department established by Trump's executive order, DOGE has its own website. As of April 20, 2025, the DOGE website showed savings of approximately $160 billion.
According to the DOGE website, parts of the government that have started to achieve cost reduction and efficiency enhancement include (listed in order of effectiveness):
Health and Human Services, Education, General Services Administration, Small Business Administration, Office of Personnel Management, Housing and Urban Development, Labor, Environmental Protection Agency, Agriculture, Interior, Social Security Administration, Treasury, National Institutes of Health, Defense, Homeland Security, State, Transportation, Energy, Veterans Affairs, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Justice, Commerce
Many government projects are ultimately outsourced through contracts to certain non-system private enterprises. If ranked by cost-saving, the top 10 canceled contract outsourcing projects are:
The resettlement project for 3,000 children entrusted to Family Endeavors by the Department of the Interior, with an original budget of $3.33 billion, saving $2.9 billion
The IT project entrusted to Centennial Technologies by the Treasury Department, with an original budget of $1.9 billion, saving $1.9 billion
The unaccompanied undocumented immigrant children project entrusted to Acacia Center for Justice by the Department of Health, with an original budget of $1.14 billion, saving $367 million
The cancellation of the recruitment and publicity project of the Office of Personnel Management, with an original budget of $318 million, saving $318 million
The project evaluation software project entrusted to Project Solutions by the Department of Housing, with an original budget of $315 million, saving $285 million
Unpublicized project of USAID, with an original budget of $683 million, saving $284 million
Unpublicized project of USAID, with an original budget of $250 million, saving $245 million
Unpublicized project of USAID, with an original budget of $245 million, saving $228 million
Unpublicized project of USAID, with an original budget of $237 million, saving $221 million
Unpublicized project of USAID, with an original budget of $275 million, saving $209 million
Projects 11 to 20 are all unpublicized projects of USAID, and there are many more after that.
DOGE has the right to query the Treasury database, and the website publishes the expenditures of various government departments in the 2018 fiscal year and the 2024 fiscal year. These data are publicly available, but DOGE makes them easier to query uniformly. For the 2024 fiscal year, the top 10 biggest spenders were:
Health Department: $1.72 trillion
Social Security Administration: $1.52 trillion
Treasury Department: $1.31 trillion
Defense Department: $862.3 billion
Veterans Affairs Department: $325 billion
Education Department: $268.4 billion
Agriculture Department: $203.4 billion
Office of Personnel Management: $126.2 billion
Transportation Department: $117 billion
Homeland Security Department: $89.3 billion
There are a few other notable ones: Supreme Court $9.5 billion, Congress $6.8 billion, White House $600 million.
Trends in February U.S. fiscal expenditure changes from 2016 to 2025, measured in billions. From the chart, it can be seen that DOGE's reform effect is not obvious. Financial Times graphic
DOGE's webpage also provides interesting information about the composition, personnel, total number of subordinate institutions, total annual salary, age distribution, salary distribution, and length of service distribution of various levels of U.S. government departments. The data cover departments, large, medium, and small independent agencies, but do not include military personnel, postal services, the White House, and intelligence systems.
For example, the Department of Defense has a staffing of 157,527 people, with a total annual salary of $14.9 billion, typical length of service of 10 years, typical annual salary of $94,501, and typical age of 48 years; the Joint Chiefs of Staff have a staffing of 828 people, with a total annual salary of $119.9 million, typical length of service of 11 years, typical annual salary of $145,000, and typical age of 54 years.
Some famous institutions are listed under various departments and are not separately listed, such as FBI under the Department of Justice and FAA under the Department of Transportation. Others are separately listed, such as NASA, EPA, and USAID. There are many medium-sized independent agencies, including the Federal Election Commission, the Budget Office, the Trade Representative's Office, etc., and the National Transportation Safety Board, responsible for traffic accident investigation and traffic safety standards, is also included, along with the special United States Holocaust Memorial Commission.
Among them, NASA has a staffing of 18,073 people, with a total annual salary of $2.7 billion, typical length of service of 14 years, typical annual salary of $148,400, and typical age of 48 years. The office of the director, research centers, launch centers, and their subordinate organizations have more specific data. FAA has a staffing of 45,306 people, with a total annual salary of $6.3 billion, typical length of service of 13 years, typical annual salary of $139,064, and typical age of 46 years. There are also detailed data for many subordinate organizations.
Small independent agencies are diverse and quirky, including the Canada-U.S. Border Commission, the District of Columbia Planning Commission, the Historic Preservation Advisory Commission, the Construction and Traffic Safety Barriers Commission, the Civil Rights "Cold Cases" Review Commission, the Financial Examination Commission, several scholarships, and the Special Committee for Government Purchasing from Blind and Severely Disabled Persons, among others.
Interestingly, the National Security Council is also among the small independent agencies, with a total of 69 personnel, a total annual salary expenditure of $9.4 million, typical length of service of 6 years, typical annual salary of $136,015, and typical age of 38 years. In other words, the typical length of service and typical age are significantly lower than most U.S. government agencies, while the typical annual salary is relatively high.
For those interested in researching the organizational structure, personnel composition, salary structure, and length of service structure of the U.S. government, DOGE provides a lot of interesting data. For example, the typical annual salary of the Department of Education is as high as $140,000, significantly higher than the $94,501 of the Department of Defense and the overall government average of $91,400. The Treasury Department, which handles money, has a typical annual salary of only $75,749. The highest typical annual salary is in the Department of Health, reaching $159,099. The Ames Research Center of NASA has a staffing of 1,318 people, of whom 529 earn salaries in the $190,000-$200,000 range, far exceeding the average salary of government employees. The age distribution is also unlike the typical bell curve, with the 50-65+ age group becoming the largest age group, reflecting a trend of aging.
DOGE has never publicly explained how it determines the efficiency and cuts of each department, but the personnel composition, salary structure, and length of service structure should be key data. "Unreasonable" high salaries, aging, and increases in staff will become trigger points for cuts, and institutions related to diversity, equality, and inclusion (DEI) will be the first to be affected.
But so far, the most significant impacts have been on USAID (United States Agency for International Development), the Department of Education, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Social Security Administration.
USAID was established in 1961 by Kennedy's order, and in the 2023 fiscal year, it had over 10,000 staff members and a budget of $4 billion. After DOGE swept through, the current staffing is 15, effectively dissolving it. It still has 15 people because USAID was approved by Congress, and only Congress can dissolve it.
Most importantly, USAID represents America's soft power. MAGA essentially acknowledges the great decline of America's hard power. When America's hard power is in great decline, soft power seems out of place. Trump was very determined in cutting off branches in MAGA. Soft power, these "useless things," need to be cut first. Where could $4 billion be better spent each year?
This wave also affected entities like "Voice of America" and the "National Endowment for Democracy," even though they may not formally or informally hang under USAID.
The problem with the Department of Education is somewhat different. From the beginning, Republicans have strongly advocated for the dissolution of the Department of Education because education is a state responsibility, and the federal Department of Education has no authority to set curricula or expand or reduce teaching staff. When Reagan took office in 1980, he intended to dissolve the Department of Education, but failed due to Democratic control of the House of Representatives.
In Trump 2.0, closing the Department of Education became a focal point again. But the issue is the same as with USAID: only Congress, which authorized the establishment of the department, can dissolve it, and the Republicans have only a slim majority, reserving firepower for more important issues.
Education is an awkward topic in America. Gallup polls show that by 2019, 62% of Americans were dissatisfied with public education, rising to 73% by 2025. The impression of poor public school education has taken root. Widespread dissatisfaction also includes funding disparities, with schools in affluent areas surviving, while those in poor areas struggling, because school funding mainly comes from local taxes.
Recognition of the importance of education is also polarized. Families with higher education levels value education, while families needing education to change their fate tend to have anti-intellectual tendencies, leading to high dropout rates, and some even resist compulsory education.
The convergence of the "education is useless" and "government waste" ideologies has made the Department of Education a target of the MAGA party.
On March 20, President Trump signed an executive order requiring the streamlining of the Department of Education and pushing for its closure. Associated Press
Problems definitely exist in the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Social Security Administration, but layoffs are causing immediate problems: delays in veterans' benefits and social security payments.
To a large extent, DOGE did what Trump wanted to do, but Musk and his "six gentlemen" made the layoffs appear a bit more scientific and less arbitrary under the guise of AI and scientific computing.
Musk made many enemies during this process. He wasn't afraid of making enemies, but now things are getting complicated.
As mentioned earlier, reducing government size was only the first step in Trump's MAGA cause. Now, the path of reducing government size is running out. Musk boasted that he could reduce a trillion dollars in deficit within 130 days, and two-thirds of the time has passed, achieving $160 billion, only 16% of his initial goal of $1 trillion. DOGE stood at the door of the Department of Defense and the intelligence community, swung its knife, and then wisely put it down.
It was reported that DOGE was trying to access the Treasury Department's IRS database. Normally, government financial data go through the Treasury Department, but accessing the IRS might be to investigate individuals' accounts. However, once this channel opens, DOGE will have the authority to check everyone's accounts in the country. This would provoke widespread opposition, but without opposition, there would be no way forward.
In a Fox News interview on March 27th, Musk said, "I think we (DOGE) will complete most of the work needed to reduce the deficit by a trillion dollars during this time (the 130-day special employee term)." In reality, everyone knows that DOGE has entered a "lame-duck" period.
The bigger problem is that Trump opened the gates of the hellish tariff war. He was never patient, but the timing of the tariff war was actually well chosen.
More time for DOGE might have allowed for greater cost-cutting and efficiency gains, giving measures more time to avoid crude and simple methods and providing more space for tax cuts. However, DOGE sparked widespread opposition, with over 1,400 protests called "Hands Off" (meaning "hands off" or "don't interfere") erupting across Washington, New York, Houston, Los Angeles, Florida, and Colorado, reportedly attracting 600,000 participants. Some demonstrations even extended to London and Paris, involving civil rights organizations, veteran groups, women's rights groups, unions, and advocates for LGBTQ+ rights, among others.
Protests targeting Tesla and its CEO Musk erupted across the U.S. Seattle Times
Protesters clearly stated three demands: "End billionaires' control of the government and rampant corruption in the Trump administration; stop cuts to Medicaid, Social Security, and other federal funds relied upon by working-class Americans; cease attacks on immigrants, transgender individuals, and other groups."
Trump is familiar with protests, but he is sensitive to shifts in public opinion, especially when Musk's "money buys votes" strategy doesn't work. Musk might have even become a "box office poison."
In the Wisconsin Supreme Court judge election, the Republican Party spent $90 million to support the candidate, with Musk contributing $21 million, making this the most expensive judicial election in history. However, liberal Susan Crawford won, maintaining the four-to-three liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, dealing a blow to both Trump and Musk. Wisconsin is important because it is a crucial "swing state" that cannot be lost.
The midterm elections are coming up, and Trump must conserve his political capital and stop using DOGE, as it has become unprofitable.
Trump has a better-than-expected chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, but the Republican majority in Congress remains too fragile. Trump needs to consolidate his administrative foundation in the midterm elections and secure an advantage in Congress. What he needs is not just a Republican advantage but a MAGA advantage.
However, American voters often elect an opposition-controlled Congress in midterm elections to balance the power of the White House. Any policy mistakes in the first two years of the administration will amplify this tendency. Trump even withdrew his nomination of Alice Stefanik, a New York representative, to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, because if Stefanik were to take up her post at the UN, her seat would need to be re-elected, and Trump "didn't want to take any risks."
If the tariff war was launched too late and the negative effects coincided with the midterm elections, then his next two years would be over. If the tariff war was launched after the midterm elections, but the midterm elections were won by the Democrats due to policy missteps, it would be difficult to push forward. Until January 2025, a Wall Street Journal poll still showed "slight support" for the tariff war. However, a poll from March 27 to April 1 found that 54% opposed the tariff increase, 12% more than those who supported it. On April 29, CNN's latest poll showed that 59% of Americans believe the tariff policy is worsening the economy, up from 51% in March.
Tariffs are the most achievable step in the MAGA agenda. However, once initiated, it is a板块 movement-level upheaval that requires full focus, so Musk and DOGE have reached the limit of their usefulness to Trump.
At the same time, differences in political views between Musk and Trump have surfaced. He opposes the tariff war, while Trump is enthusiastic about it, which has been semi-public for a long time. Musk might have hoped to use his influence to change Trump's determination, but this was wishful thinking. Their verbal sparring is merely venting frustrations.
As his final public statement, Musk said on April 5th during a video appearance at an event hosted by Italy's right-wing alliance: "In my view, Europe and America should achieve zero tariffs and establish a free trade zone between Europe and North America."
He also hoped for "very close partnerships" between Europe and America and more freedom of movement for personnel. "If someone wants to work in Europe or wants to work in North America, in my view, they should be allowed to do so." This contradicts Trump's anti-immigration stance.
Musk's own commercial empire is also starting to face problems. Tesla has been burned in the U.S., and sales in Europe fell 13% in the first quarter. Musk's personal wealth has plummeted dramatically, losing $82 billion.
Musk's leadership of DOGE also raises conflicts of interest. At least 11 government departments that have been cut have had past disputes with Musk, including investigations, lawsuits, and fines. Musk's companies themselves are beneficiaries of government grants, including receiving at least $18 billion in contracts for SpaceX over the past decade. These are not evidence, but they do raise suspicions of conflicts of interest.
In summary, a mess of feathers is flying into Musk's face, whether he initiated it or Trump did, it's time to exit.
Trump's MAGA cause still has a third step: reindustrialization. Here, Musk's experience might come in handy, as he is one of the few in decades to have built large-scale manufacturing and hard technology companies from scratch and succeeded in the U.S. "If SpaceX were to do xxx" is often mentioned in American high-tech manufacturing circles.
But Trump needs to finish the second step first: the tariff war. Trump thought he had unleashed a decisive move, but he inadvertently opened a huge hole, and a flood of epic proportions is now raging, yet he does not have Noah's Ark.
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