Reference Message Website reported on May 1 that the Wall Street Journal website dated April 29 published an article titled "Canada Election Challenges Trump's Trade War Theory" written by its chief economic commentator Edward Yip. The following is an excerpt of the article:

President Trump believes that trade wars are easy to win, for a simple reason: other countries depend more on the United States than vice versa. Therefore, they will offer almost anything to maintain market access.

Canadian voters may puncture this theory. On the 28th, they once again chose the Liberal Party to govern and allowed Prime Minister Mark Carney to continue leading Canada. Carney promised that he would never yield to Trump and would take a more independent path, breaking free from dependence on the United States.

This is a costly and arduous path, but Canadians seem willing to accept it as the price of maintaining sovereignty.

Trade wars, like military wars, rarely proceed as planned because the other side also has a say. If only economic costs and benefits matter, then Trump might be right; the U.S. holds all the cards. But other countries may prioritize national sovereignty, security, or politics, and the result could be an economic blow, leaving all parties—both the U.S. and its trading partners—in a worse situation.

Undoubtedly, Canada has suffered more losses than almost any country or region due to Trump's tariff policies. From the bilateral free trade agreement in the 1980s, the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, to the USMCA that took effect in 2020, no country has bet so heavily on integration with the U.S. as Canada.

Therefore, when Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, ostensibly to reduce the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants—although Canada is not a major source of either—Canada was shocked. Canadians later concluded that Trump's motive was annexation.

Suddenly, the trade war became a war for survival. During his campaign, Carney said: "U.S. President Trump is trying to crush us so that America can have us."

Nations are willing to endure economic hardships for their sovereignty, which goes without saying.

For Trump himself, the sovereignty of the United States is also at the core of his worldview; he warned that there would be economic "turmoil" during his efforts to "liberate" through tariffs. However, he seems not to understand why this is equally important for other countries.

For Carney, the difficult part now begins. He promised to start negotiations with Trump on new economic and security agreements.

Canada's position will be influenced by negotiations between the U.S. and other countries. So far, Canada has been almost alone in retaliating against Trump's tariffs. Because the sovereignty of other countries has not been threatened. The greater the concessions Trump forces them to make, the harsher his stance on Canada may become.

The main exception is China. China retaliated through non-tariff measures such as imposing tariffs on the U.S. and controlling rare earth exports.

In the eyes of the U.S., China is very different from Canada. But from the perspective of both countries, they both respond to Trump's trade war in ways far beyond mere money.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499474333912384027/

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