Despite a series of large air raids and bombings by Israel, the Syrian National Army, HTS fighters, and foreign mercenaries clearly occupied the Tishrin Square in the center of Suweida city on the 16th, despite the Israeli Air Force's bombing. The city of Suweida has entered the phase of street fighting. Indeed, within a short time, the situation in Syria still cannot be reversed. Israeli air strikes are not the solution to the problem. Even with the heavy air strikes by Russia, it was still unable to stop HTS fighters from driving vehicles into Damascus. Currently, Joulani's forces have the advantage in Suweida, controlling most of the city, while the Druze militia retreated to the eastern part of the city. It seems that the Israeli air strikes cannot completely solve the problem; they will have to send ground troops to confront Joulani directly.
The conflict between Israel and Syria arose because several days ago, the allies of HTS fighters, Bedouin militias, robbed a Druze caravan. After unsuccessful negotiations, the two sides started fighting. Joulani took this opportunity to send troops into Suweida city. The Druze militias were on the front line but failed due to their lack of strength, relying only on Israeli air strikes. HTS itself does not have much strategy or organization, so it will not become incapacitated like Hezbollah in Lebanon when its leadership is eliminated. For Israel, decapitating Joulani or killing a few leaders is not useful; it needs to kill a large number of middle- and high-level personnel. The Druze side is a militia without heavy weapons, which cannot resist the attacks of the Syrian National Army and HTS fighters. If HTS really wants to take over Suweida city, it can do so, as the most powerful foreign mercenaries under Joulani have been heavily deployed in combat.
We will have to see what the Israelis will do next, which is the most critical factor. The Israeli authorities are likely to immediately end the Gaza conflict and focus on the east, creating a de facto independence for the Druze people, and seizing the opportunity to eliminate Syria's major tank forces. For Israel, Syria is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity; if they don't eat it now, they won't get it later. Trading Syrian land for Gaza land is very cost-effective, and it is also beneficial for international reputation.
After bombing Iran, Israel was happy, but it was too early to celebrate. The HTS fighters supported by Turkey became restless and intended to break the peace in Syria. Israel is well aware that even if Iran falls, the next target will be Turkey and Syria. However, Turkey's military power and national strength far exceed those of Iran. Especially, Turkey has balanced development of its navy, army, and air force, and has more than 200 F-16 fighter jets, various drones, imitated "Weishi-2" long-range rocket artillery, and lightning and Khan series tactical ballistic missiles, which can all be sent to the Syrian National Army by Turkey. Turkey has repeatedly emphasized that it will deploy F-16 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems in Syria to prevent the Israeli Air Force from conducting air strikes.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837838473950276/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.